{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5636c4cf-7d84-42fb-bf59-c27bb981cb76", "symbol": "NVAX", "name": "Novavax, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.729, "architecture_energy": 78.737, "architecture_maturity": 14.226, "architecture_confidence": 82.33, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.02, "rotation_up": 10.82, "upward_expansion": 20.14, "deceleration": 34.19, "rotation_down": 79.07, "downward_expansion": 93.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 134.004002, 143.522002, 151.077335, 153.794388 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 132.0, "trend_reference": 155.812667, "distance_from_trend": -0.152829, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 152.831859, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.136306, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.827223, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.060498, "excess_performance": -0.005831, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.152829, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054127, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.136306, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.295199, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.138272, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.228575, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.060498, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.341434, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 367, "relative_activity": 0.344116, "balance": 0.341434, "dry_up": 0.714955, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103741, "annualized_volatility": 0.644298, "from_high_reference": -0.35572, "from_low_reference": 0.147826 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 155.812667, "fair_value_reference": 152.831859, "structural_low": 126.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.065478, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.073199, "regime_survival": 0.871795, "best_return": 2.13874, "worst_return": -0.433609, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.150512, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.114088, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 1.698795, "worst_return": -0.658016, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.278702, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.317293, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 2.470294, "worst_return": -0.80454, "sufficient": 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163.540365, 160.853001, 159.142108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 158.0, "volume": 126, "typical_volume": 1742.05, "trend": 154.738, "fair_value": 152.857628, "relative_strength": 2.437374, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.198866, "energy": 10.747673, "activity_lines": [ 160.421334, 162.676546, 160.505953, 159.43256 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 142.630005, "volume": 480, "typical_volume": 1606.15, "trend": 155.559001, "fair_value": 152.88891, "relative_strength": -7.575641, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.242687, "energy": 18.133233, "activity_lines": [ 154.587335, 158.690911, 158.714144, 158.651399 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 133.600006, "volume": 852, "typical_volume": 1206.3, "trend": 155.945668, "fair_value": 152.892757, "relative_strength": -12.80126, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.362557, "energy": 46.504832, "activity_lines": [ 146.568003, 153.652003, 156.214097, 157.234689 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 126.5, "volume": 1351, "typical_volume": 1156.95, "trend": 155.879001, "fair_value": 152.806218, "relative_strength": -17.920406, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.935385, "energy": 72.670534, "activity_lines": [ 138.386003, 147.802184, 153.244525, 155.334969 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 132.0, "volume": 367, "typical_volume": 1066.5, "trend": 155.812667, "fair_value": 152.831859, "relative_strength": -13.827223, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.729383, "energy": 78.736686, "activity_lines": [ 134.004002, 143.522002, 151.077335, 153.794388 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }