{ "ticker": { "uuid": "56379b2f-7985-4ee1-aa5a-c7f6c841b22e", "symbol": "SMDD", "name": "PROSHARES ULTRAPRO SHORT MIDCAP400", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.885, "architecture_energy": 51.95, "architecture_maturity": 76.828, "architecture_confidence": 85.681, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.69, "rotation_up": 28.12, "upward_expansion": 7.77, "deceleration": 57.83, "rotation_down": 45.49, "downward_expansion": 76.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.778827, 7.832097, 8.167835, 8.715244 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.32, "trend_reference": 9.336962, "distance_from_trend": -0.216019, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.927429, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.591687, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -40.128096, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.240403, "excess_performance": -0.366028, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.216019, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.136692, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.591687, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020556, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.401281, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002004, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.240403, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.915432, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 60567, "relative_activity": 1.058646, "balance": 0.915432, "dry_up": 0.679817, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08981, "annualized_volatility": 0.412024, "from_high_reference": -0.512864, "from_low_reference": 0.004143 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.336962, "fair_value_reference": 17.927429, "structural_low": 7.2898, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": -0.034216, "positive_rate": 0.409091, "directional_follow_through": 0.590909, "median_excess_return": -0.050699, "regime_survival": 0.840909, "best_return": 0.38895, "worst_return": -0.205301, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.074832, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -0.114753, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.191063, "worst_return": -0.224605, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.181278, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.258746, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.377495, "worst_return": -0.270283, "sufficient": true 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8.001289, 8.553304, 9.063365 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.9408, "volume": 34351, "typical_volume": 70187.25, "trend": 9.580129, "fair_value": 18.19909, "relative_strength": -34.252838, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.286836, "energy": 48.40064, "activity_lines": [ 7.9256, 7.954841, 8.423731, 8.949619 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.08, "volume": 31732, "typical_volume": 60984.5, "trend": 9.452679, "fair_value": 18.068035, "relative_strength": -32.738061, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.480712, "energy": 38.921425, "activity_lines": [ 7.989547, 7.95682, 8.322934, 8.852837 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.32, "volume": 60567, "typical_volume": 57211.75, "trend": 9.336962, "fair_value": 17.927429, "relative_strength": -40.128096, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.885478, "energy": 51.950089, "activity_lines": [ 7.778827, 7.832097, 8.167835, 8.715244 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }