{ "ticker": { "uuid": "564597ed-97d7-46a9-a6ef-07104cda67ef", "symbol": "DIV", "name": "Diversified Royalty Corp.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 34.858, "architecture_energy": 21.226, "architecture_maturity": 65.169, "architecture_confidence": 89.979, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.06, "rotation_up": 26.39, "upward_expansion": 56.67, "deceleration": 88.09, "rotation_down": 30.53, "downward_expansion": 18.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.553038, 4.599789, 4.580748, 4.470237 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.63, "trend_reference": 4.30655, "distance_from_trend": 0.075106, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.965841, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.561109, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.584037, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.172796, "excess_performance": 0.052375, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.075106, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088839, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.561109, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009024, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.04584, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040896, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.172796, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.374495, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1820600, "relative_activity": 1.009101, "balance": 1.374495, "dry_up": 1.150398, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050861, "annualized_volatility": 0.266167, "from_high_reference": -0.061571, "from_low_reference": 0.473936 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.30655, "fair_value_reference": 2.965841, "structural_low": 3.748102, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.000527, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.001927, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.079118, "worst_return": -0.056904, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.015577, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.027758, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.149182, "worst_return": -0.038405, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.117202, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.077715, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.285787, "worst_return": -0.0355, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.060068, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.03327, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.103393, "worst_return": 0.056672, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.044433, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.057437, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037527, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018256, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007117, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.063033, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006896, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003367, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.216006, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.079118, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.093143, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03563, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.072741, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038117, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.25746, "volume": 991600, "typical_volume": 1148705.0, "trend": 2.322473, "fair_value": 1.946351, "relative_strength": 0.037416, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 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"fair_value": 2.922295, "relative_strength": 4.639713, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.396149, "energy": 27.525071, "activity_lines": [ 4.613383, 4.663862, 4.543283, 4.41137 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.49, "volume": 1653200, "typical_volume": 1798780.0, "trend": 4.249168, "fair_value": 2.936101, "relative_strength": 4.790028, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.790003, "energy": 21.493911, "activity_lines": [ 4.552083, 4.631769, 4.552017, 4.428794 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.54, "volume": 2450200, "typical_volume": 1827460.0, "trend": 4.278463, "fair_value": 2.950531, "relative_strength": 6.133298, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.540372, "energy": 22.587668, "activity_lines": [ 4.534382, 4.605094, 4.563606, 4.447558 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.63, "volume": 1820600, "typical_volume": 1804180.0, "trend": 4.30655, "fair_value": 2.965841, "relative_strength": 4.584037, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.858414, "energy": 21.226091, "activity_lines": [ 4.553038, 4.599789, 4.580748, 4.470237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }