{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5648ab30-2ab6-4dcb-b7a6-7434967b93cc", "symbol": "MEMS", "name": "MEMSCAP, S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 14.785, "architecture_energy": 15.167, "architecture_maturity": 10.366, "architecture_confidence": 77.303, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.0, "rotation_up": 23.82, "upward_expansion": 42.91, "deceleration": 73.11, "rotation_down": 35.61, "downward_expansion": 34.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.875333, 4.93294, 5.062782, 4.974913 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.2, "trend_reference": 4.816735, "distance_from_trend": 0.079569, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.144949, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.0107, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.861763, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.223529, "excess_performance": 0.170218, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.079569, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086601, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.0107, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0498, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.088618, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074238, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.223529, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.448536, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 64522, "relative_activity": 0.362584, "balance": 1.448536, "dry_up": 0.381537, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096461, "annualized_volatility": 0.553941, "from_high_reference": -0.203052, "from_low_reference": 0.485714 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.816735, "fair_value_reference": 5.144949, "structural_low": 4.035, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.018579, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.033276, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.194399, "worst_return": -0.157241, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.21911, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.214043, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.21911, "worst_return": -0.21911, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.146623, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.134135, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.146623, "worst_return": -0.146623, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.385502, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.40968, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.385502, "worst_return": -0.385502, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.194399, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.296089, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.292553, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.130372, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.165877, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.160284, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016089, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020988, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.311475, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.114286, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.220293, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042356, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006356, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.097046, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 5.76, "volume": 309051, "typical_volume": 190546.35, "trend": 3.393167, "fair_value": 1.705404, "relative_strength": 132.557922, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.771884, "energy": 77.697411, "activity_lines": [ 5.47, 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4.954899 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.6, "volume": 70119, "typical_volume": 175861.65, "trend": 4.737402, "fair_value": 5.152834, "relative_strength": 1.380303, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.958047, "energy": 22.697997, "activity_lines": [ 4.785333, 5.104515, 5.079907, 4.947679 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.75, "volume": 27995, "typical_volume": 173283.7, "trend": 4.752402, "fair_value": 5.150077, "relative_strength": 4.042413, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.470765, "energy": 25.493191, "activity_lines": [ 4.718, 5.011513, 5.06154, 4.948492 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.74, "volume": 108943, "typical_volume": 176228.75, "trend": 4.778068, "fair_value": 5.148411, "relative_strength": 1.888785, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.271181, "energy": 27.636212, "activity_lines": [ 4.722667, 4.926675, 5.041125, 4.947692 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.2, "volume": 64522, "typical_volume": 177950.45, "trend": 4.816735, "fair_value": 5.144949, "relative_strength": 8.861763, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.785475, "energy": 15.167121, "activity_lines": [ 4.875333, 4.93294, 5.062782, 4.974913 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }