{ "ticker": { "uuid": "565266b2-dff0-48d1-b5cc-d56fb57ec236", "symbol": "TURU", "name": "Amundi MSCI Turkey UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 71.565, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.373, "architecture_energy": 43.502, "architecture_maturity": 8.44, "architecture_confidence": 90.763, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.42, "rotation_up": 13.69, "upward_expansion": 8.63, "deceleration": 40.65, "rotation_down": 59.24, "downward_expansion": 84.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 55.962334, 56.578819, 57.340405, 57.573764 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 55.945, "trend_reference": 57.705167, "distance_from_trend": -0.030503, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 49.52901, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.12954, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.939159, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.023988, "excess_performance": -0.075223, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.030503, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057381, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.12954, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.168625, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.029392, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.200614, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.023988, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.064575, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 79, "relative_activity": 0.011735, "balance": 0.064575, "dry_up": 0.263363, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056292, "annualized_volatility": 0.248046, "from_high_reference": -0.117308, "from_low_reference": 0.354171 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 57.705167, "fair_value_reference": 49.52901, "structural_low": 53.09, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.0701, "positive_rate": 0.6875, "directional_follow_through": 0.6875, "median_excess_return": 0.057365, "regime_survival": 0.4375, "best_return": 0.120241, "worst_return": -0.187327, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.037329, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.022507, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.357664, "worst_return": -0.138679, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.116746, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.05076, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.384653, "worst_return": -0.129637, 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false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.035989, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.076475, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01267, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.021942, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.174621, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": 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"stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.032599, "energy": 11.875001, "activity_lines": [ 57.655667, 57.412636, 58.066286, 57.882833 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 56.400002, "volume": 4114, "typical_volume": 9552.95, "trend": 57.092584, "fair_value": 49.272904, "relative_strength": 0.497025, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.393418, "energy": 9.853281, "activity_lines": [ 57.168335, 57.155273, 57.911929, 57.855554 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 56.970001, "volume": 2561, "typical_volume": 8230.0, "trend": 57.3865, "fair_value": 49.373898, "relative_strength": 0.201817, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.724172, "energy": 19.152686, "activity_lines": [ 56.927335, 57.108092, 57.824, 57.847645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 54.779999, "volume": 338, "typical_volume": 7154.75, "trend": 57.583667, "fair_value": 49.453802, "relative_strength": -4.744354, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.942121, "energy": 36.959654, "activity_lines": [ 56.155667, 56.716273, 57.524167, 57.679484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 55.945, "volume": 79, "typical_volume": 6732.15, "trend": 57.705167, "fair_value": 49.52901, "relative_strength": -2.939159, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.373123, "energy": 43.501762, "activity_lines": [ 55.962334, 56.578819, 57.340405, 57.573764 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }