{ "ticker": { "uuid": "56535628-7b26-43f9-9d73-60978a9eabdf", "symbol": "GLUE", "name": "Monte Rosa Therapeutics Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 69.644, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -12.925, "architecture_energy": 15.091, "architecture_maturity": 42.325, "architecture_confidence": 67.401, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.78, "rotation_up": 21.36, "upward_expansion": 36.09, "deceleration": 70.18, "rotation_down": 50.74, "downward_expansion": 21.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.065333, 20.324727, 19.904762, 19.409699 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 15.88, "trend_reference": 19.243167, "distance_from_trend": -0.174772, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.945, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.775293, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.74836, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.187724, "excess_performance": -0.375177, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.174772, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072441, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.775293, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.693611, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.117484, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.475335, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.187724, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.100869, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9232816, "relative_activity": 1.548199, "balance": 1.100869, "dry_up": 1.339346, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.206526, "annualized_volatility": 0.738445, "from_high_reference": -0.38378, "from_low_reference": 2.826506 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.243167, "fair_value_reference": 8.945, "structural_low": 14.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.053848, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.06166, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 1.087318, "worst_return": -0.215517, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.08608, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.20197, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.945736, "worst_return": -0.361736, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.175182, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.28813, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 2.937759, "worst_return": -0.22508, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.067524, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.045098, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.098837, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.085595, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.382096, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.534045, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.077746, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.327667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.282986, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 6.32, "volume": 1373930, "typical_volume": 891416.6, "trend": 6.6885, "fair_value": 12.785, "relative_strength": -26.78934, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.657153, "energy": 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21.528818, 20.139976, 19.611366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.78, "volume": 3939995, "typical_volume": 5549103.05, "trend": 19.482833, "fair_value": 8.824295, "relative_strength": 36.912803, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.911957, "energy": 73.804321, "activity_lines": [ 23.464667, 21.967273, 20.495952, 19.835892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.52, "volume": 12821651, "typical_volume": 5986845.4, "trend": 19.523167, "fair_value": 8.88609, "relative_strength": -2.436777, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.948757, "energy": 18.311192, "activity_lines": [ 21.179333, 21.183364, 20.232024, 19.644742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.88, "volume": 9232816, "typical_volume": 5963586.1, "trend": 19.243167, "fair_value": 8.945, "relative_strength": -11.74836, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.925342, "energy": 15.090873, "activity_lines": [ 19.065333, 20.324727, 19.904762, 19.409699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }