{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5655d97e-4873-404a-ae8d-6ba2745fc035", "symbol": "BORR", "name": "Borr Drilling Ltd", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.203, "architecture_energy": 64.251, "architecture_maturity": 23.284, "architecture_confidence": 93.991, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.63, "rotation_up": 17.22, "upward_expansion": 12.78, "deceleration": 41.88, "rotation_down": 66.32, "downward_expansion": 88.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.050667, 4.187818, 4.640857, 4.892882 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 3.86, "trend_reference": 5.086, "distance_from_trend": -0.241054, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.60936, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.162574, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.571334, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.271698, "excess_performance": -0.397323, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.241054, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041928, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.162574, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.375579, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.195713, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.647968, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.271698, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.311628, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21937787, "relative_activity": 0.653839, "balance": 0.311628, "dry_up": 0.568829, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.150245, "annualized_volatility": 0.553511, "from_high_reference": -0.419985, "from_low_reference": 0.803738 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.086, "fair_value_reference": 4.60936, "structural_low": 3.775, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.07615, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.058223, "regime_survival": 0.809524, "best_return": 0.547872, "worst_return": -0.274953, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.171946, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.04199, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.601093, "worst_return": -0.372414, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.090659, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.266843, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.559585, "worst_return": -0.585822, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.253456, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034364, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.172881, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.232558, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.867284, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 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36048496.8, "trend": 5.098, "fair_value": 4.662134, "relative_strength": -6.642964, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.778442, "energy": 50.665601, "activity_lines": [ 4.274667, 4.388364, 4.86281, 5.041742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.03, "volume": 19955068, "typical_volume": 35055343.5, "trend": 5.099333, "fair_value": 4.635199, "relative_strength": -12.661655, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.73276, "energy": 57.175043, "activity_lines": [ 4.18, 4.29, 4.757476, 4.972839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.86, "volume": 21937787, "typical_volume": 33552265.85, "trend": 5.086, "fair_value": 4.60936, "relative_strength": -19.571334, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.203189, "energy": 64.251462, "activity_lines": [ 4.050667, 4.187818, 4.640857, 4.892882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }