{ "ticker": { "uuid": "56570ba8-1b50-4f57-9159-4d1be3adb028", "symbol": "ATGL", "name": "Alpha Technology Group Limited Ordinary Shares", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.593, "architecture_energy": 45.928, "architecture_maturity": 62.34, "architecture_confidence": 85.857, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.51, "rotation_up": 16.02, "upward_expansion": 5.28, "deceleration": 49.33, "rotation_down": 67.06, "downward_expansion": 83.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.08936, 10.008907, 11.704966, 12.965126 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 8.35, "trend_reference": 14.811387, "distance_from_trend": -0.436245, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.067237, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.445817, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -61.319599, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.571575, "excess_performance": -0.759029, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.436245, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.196213, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.445817, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.614787, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.613196, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.305726, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.571575, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.170158, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 695913, "relative_activity": 13.265011, "balance": 0.170158, "dry_up": 3.953329, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.479668, "annualized_volatility": 0.763291, "from_high_reference": -0.833, "from_low_reference": 0.128378 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.811387, "fair_value_reference": 15.067237, "structural_low": 7.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.190751, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.195091, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.688538, "worst_return": -0.277778, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.087939, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.15041, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.163582, "worst_return": -0.289133, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.061258, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.002419, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.061258, "worst_return": 0.061258, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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}, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.3601, "volume": 3523, "typical_volume": 18123.1, "trend": 15.553387, "fair_value": 15.113885, "relative_strength": -59.831651, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.517447, "energy": 50.542432, "activity_lines": [ 9.682367, 10.559265, 12.184584, 13.429861 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.35, "volume": 695913, "typical_volume": 52462.3, "trend": 14.811387, "fair_value": 15.067237, "relative_strength": -61.319599, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.593457, "energy": 45.92785, "activity_lines": [ 9.08936, 10.008907, 11.704966, 12.965126 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }