{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5657b1f1-4738-46a7-9d9c-f17cb08a1ac5", "symbol": "ALTI", "name": "Alvarium Tiedemann Holdings Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 80.163, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 35.758, "architecture_energy": 26.832, "architecture_maturity": 18.446, "architecture_confidence": 69.675, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.08, "rotation_up": 57.93, "upward_expansion": 35.51, "deceleration": 32.23, "rotation_down": 16.05, "downward_expansion": 19.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.825333, 3.642727, 3.538048, 3.603011 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.45, "trend_reference": 3.769333, "distance_from_trend": 0.18058, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.640545, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.041061, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.711104, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.024123, "excess_performance": -0.211576, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.18058, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077388, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.041061, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.17179, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.017111, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.190302, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.024123, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.377663, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2617379, "relative_activity": 2.717721, "balance": 1.377663, "dry_up": 0.988971, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.124283, "annualized_volatility": 0.62305, "from_high_reference": -0.182736, "from_low_reference": 0.618182 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.769333, "fair_value_reference": 4.640545, "structural_low": 2.75, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.034169, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.034221, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.137363, "worst_return": -0.201946, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.043898, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.122974, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.137363, "worst_return": -0.280193, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.216401, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.269836, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.247253, "worst_return": -0.343612, "sufficient": false }, { 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"relative_strength": -23.393487, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.132283, "energy": 17.778125, "activity_lines": [ 3.479333, 3.362182, 3.455048, 3.625914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.46, "volume": 339706, "typical_volume": 916067.85, "trend": 3.837667, "fair_value": 4.710449, "relative_strength": -22.070642, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.529202, "energy": 20.791857, "activity_lines": [ 3.514, 3.378364, 3.44481, 3.598495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.41, "volume": 418445, "typical_volume": 911387.65, "trend": 3.794667, "fair_value": 4.687083, "relative_strength": -21.292269, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.540189, "energy": 17.403509, "activity_lines": [ 3.505333, 3.392909, 3.434429, 3.570903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.6, "volume": 434296, "typical_volume": 893426.15, "trend": 3.757667, "fair_value": 4.663173, "relative_strength": -16.89789, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.572352, "energy": 12.427031, "activity_lines": [ 3.525333, 3.443273, 3.445619, 3.558344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.45, "volume": 2617379, "typical_volume": 963078.55, "trend": 3.769333, "fair_value": 4.640545, "relative_strength": -1.711104, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.758252, "energy": 26.831588, "activity_lines": [ 3.825333, 3.642727, 3.538048, 3.603011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }