{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5662a79b-0239-40d0-ad23-6f797b325ff9", "symbol": "GGTL", "name": "Gabelli Global Technology Leaders ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 95.139, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.296, "architecture_energy": 27.111, "architecture_maturity": 68.915, "architecture_confidence": 81.813, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.63, "rotation_up": 26.48, "upward_expansion": 57.55, "deceleration": 88.32, "rotation_down": 33.87, "downward_expansion": 18.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.639647, 38.207809, 38.038357, 36.801746 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 38.7462, "trend_reference": 35.257883, "distance_from_trend": 0.098937, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.243187, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.371878, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.416917, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.208636, "excess_performance": 0.083011, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.098937, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067337, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.371878, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02471, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.024169, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042249, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.208636, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.119476, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2712, "relative_activity": 0.521779, "balance": 0.119476, "dry_up": 3.430285, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05103, "annualized_volatility": 0.231365, "from_high_reference": -0.06748, "from_low_reference": 0.305613 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.257883, "fair_value_reference": 28.243187, "structural_low": 29.942, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.015383, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.00257, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.02888, "worst_return": -0.022336, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.005186, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.001558, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.006367, "worst_return": -0.143945, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.105332, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.04261, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.256981, "worst_return": 0.030121, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.132679, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.06949, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.06072, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006991, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.015449, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.039027, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.076306, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032192, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.047026, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.050417, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 22.466187, "volume": 601, "typical_volume": 279.55, "trend": 21.780719, "fair_value": 21.013817, "relative_strength": -1.450843, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.925194, 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10.171433, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.302189, "energy": 64.069625, "activity_lines": [ 39.627027, 39.005249, 36.777877, 35.483514 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 39.1264, "volume": 661, "typical_volume": 6580.5, "trend": 34.312119, "fair_value": 27.761154, "relative_strength": 7.869916, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.030663, "energy": 60.660967, "activity_lines": [ 39.46712, 39.169453, 37.171503, 35.809474 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 39.6958, "volume": 517, "typical_volume": 6569.65, "trend": 34.570415, "fair_value": 27.868874, "relative_strength": 7.781078, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.38651, "energy": 58.98707, "activity_lines": [ 39.557893, 39.370627, 37.586294, 36.156808 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 37.02, "volume": 1642, "typical_volume": 6629.45, "trend": 34.746086, "fair_value": 27.959463, "relative_strength": 2.025525, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.72231, "energy": 37.177578, "activity_lines": [ 38.69222, 39.006411, 37.708652, 36.314846 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.8865, "volume": 1555, "typical_volume": 6699.8, "trend": 34.90642, "fair_value": 28.049125, "relative_strength": 2.197259, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.195529, "energy": 25.127891, "activity_lines": [ 37.926633, 38.627469, 37.794481, 36.452937 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.6171, "volume": 65408, "typical_volume": 9928.3, "trend": 35.050333, "fair_value": 28.139934, "relative_strength": 0.301013, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.475475, "energy": 24.844427, "activity_lines": [ 37.3473, 38.206253, 37.828063, 36.563303 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.7462, "volume": 2712, "typical_volume": 5197.6, "trend": 35.257883, "fair_value": 28.243187, "relative_strength": 2.416917, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.295665, "energy": 27.110641, "activity_lines": [ 37.639647, 38.207809, 38.038357, 36.801746 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }