{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5663ae65-d4a8-4aa4-ae3c-5c6a7673147e", "symbol": "UC85", "name": "UBS Core BBG US Liquid Corp UCITS ETF hGBP dis", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 58.673, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.158, "architecture_energy": 72.642, "architecture_maturity": 4.794, "architecture_confidence": 78.45, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.98, "rotation_up": 8.4, "upward_expansion": 16.3, "deceleration": 37.08, "rotation_down": 73.56, "downward_expansion": 89.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 1387.2, 1394.204545, 1398.454762, 1400.091671 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1390.25, "trend_reference": 1404.183362, "distance_from_trend": -0.009923, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1386.656871, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.002591, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.063479, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.023401, "excess_performance": -0.074636, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.009923, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004205, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.002591, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012577, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.090635, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030096, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.023401, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.232033, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7389, "relative_activity": 0.258459, "balance": 1.232033, "dry_up": 0.360676, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007751, "annualized_volatility": 0.049254, "from_high_reference": -0.027669, "from_low_reference": 0.00889 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1404.183362, "fair_value_reference": 1386.656871, "structural_low": 1378.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.001248, "positive_rate": 0.434783, "directional_follow_through": 0.565217, "median_excess_return": -0.003327, "regime_survival": 0.826087, "best_return": 0.064085, "worst_return": -0.059551, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.007024, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.021258, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.088622, "worst_return": -0.109669, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.000696, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.066401, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.02879, "worst_return": -0.135604, "sufficient": false }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 1409.716667, 1406.913636, 1404.35119, 1405.966837 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1396.0, "volume": 34047, "typical_volume": 51695.05, "trend": 1408.358451, "fair_value": 1386.070062, "relative_strength": -6.453807, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.885112, "energy": 14.666883, "activity_lines": [ 1405.6, 1405.345455, 1403.616667, 1405.134971 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1397.25, "volume": 21945, "typical_volume": 51797.0, "trend": 1407.664677, "fair_value": 1386.10611, "relative_strength": -6.978472, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.363271, "energy": 19.88237, "activity_lines": [ 1402.283333, 1404.081818, 1403.108333, 1404.418297 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1381.75, "volume": 6669, "typical_volume": 51164.85, "trend": 1406.445902, "fair_value": 1386.078013, "relative_strength": -8.859368, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.057174, "energy": 58.828627, "activity_lines": [ 1394.566667, 1400.15, 1401.240476, 1402.746382 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1380.25, "volume": 5242, "typical_volume": 44569.4, "trend": 1405.202124, "fair_value": 1386.307372, "relative_strength": -9.748989, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.343363, "energy": 77.778408, "activity_lines": [ 1388.05, 1396.127273, 1399.353571, 1401.056324 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1390.25, "volume": 7389, "typical_volume": 28588.65, "trend": 1404.183362, "fair_value": 1386.656871, "relative_strength": -9.063479, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.158454, "energy": 72.642112, "activity_lines": [ 1387.2, 1394.204545, 1398.454762, 1400.091671 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }