{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5664133d-de71-44ac-a477-dfabad93520f", "symbol": "NAC", "name": "Nuveen California Quality Municipal Income Fund", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 24.109, "architecture_energy": 20.791, "architecture_maturity": 83.482, "architecture_confidence": 72.472, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.97, "rotation_up": 23.68, "upward_expansion": 55.8, "deceleration": 88.27, "rotation_down": 39.81, "downward_expansion": 21.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.810025, 11.876046, 11.860218, 11.79707 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 11.84, "trend_reference": 11.715207, "distance_from_trend": 0.010652, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.251443, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.154959, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.896867, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.031123, "excess_performance": -0.094502, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.010652, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014392, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.154959, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029839, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.078969, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031781, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.031123, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.48876, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2504729, "relative_activity": 0.964825, "balance": 0.48876, "dry_up": 0.79122, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017022, "annualized_volatility": 0.083064, "from_high_reference": -0.023252, "from_low_reference": 0.138224 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.715207, "fair_value_reference": 10.251443, "structural_low": 11.173908, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.010862, "positive_rate": 0.653846, "directional_follow_through": 0.653846, "median_excess_return": 0.001416, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.03966, "worst_return": -0.043837, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.009103, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.01902, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.08151, "worst_return": -0.019924, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.042473, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.052451, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.115848, "worst_return": -0.029175, "sufficient": true }, { 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11.766768 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.94, "volume": 1833216, "typical_volume": 2709865.4, "trend": 11.68364, "fair_value": 10.194237, "relative_strength": -3.7338, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.754879, "energy": 60.825119, "activity_lines": [ 11.998266, 11.964932, 11.861481, 11.784567 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.72, "volume": 1801292, "typical_volume": 2660195.2, "trend": 11.696149, "fair_value": 10.212401, "relative_strength": -4.909545, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.507234, "energy": 25.404016, "activity_lines": [ 11.908785, 11.927878, 11.857696, 11.786913 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.72, "volume": 2076937, "typical_volume": 2619679.1, "trend": 11.706409, "fair_value": 10.231301, "relative_strength": -5.790372, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.400728, "energy": 16.720521, "activity_lines": [ 11.830053, 11.891398, 11.853538, 11.788451 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.84, "volume": 2504729, "typical_volume": 2596046.1, "trend": 11.715207, "fair_value": 10.251443, "relative_strength": -7.896867, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.109352, "energy": 20.791462, "activity_lines": [ 11.810025, 11.876046, 11.860218, 11.79707 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }