{ "ticker": { "uuid": "566b95ac-f56c-4972-9a4a-3a0db3d3fdef", "symbol": "BVFL", "name": "BV Financial, Inc. Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 48.139, "architecture_energy": 26.678, "architecture_maturity": 33.805, "architecture_confidence": 52.213, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.19, "rotation_up": 40.95, "upward_expansion": 63.57, "deceleration": 64.37, "rotation_down": 22.37, "downward_expansion": 13.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.985333, 21.026545, 20.642095, 20.316172 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 21.43, "trend_reference": 19.898667, "distance_from_trend": 0.076957, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.326314, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.398249, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.352736, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.082323, "excess_performance": -0.10513, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.076957, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047069, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.398249, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029466, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.003527, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046628, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.082323, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.45658, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 65603, "relative_activity": 0.73731, "balance": 1.45658, "dry_up": 0.883422, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058929, "annualized_volatility": 0.19543, "from_high_reference": -0.033378, "from_low_reference": 0.467808 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.898667, "fair_value_reference": 15.326314, "structural_low": 17.2, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.007879, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.013627, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.07173, "worst_return": -0.128697, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.0575, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.003108, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.077577, "worst_return": -0.165111, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.069073, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.003655, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.111111, "worst_return": -0.080513, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.217426, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.039838, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.281024, "worst_return": -0.019745, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.21295, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.118436, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006373, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.135057, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.079872, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017282, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.067178, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.027298, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01594, 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19.644, "fair_value": 15.124454, "relative_strength": 5.076578, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.266295, "energy": 69.810865, "activity_lines": [ 21.371333, 20.928909, 20.440619, 20.103763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.48, "volume": 75454, "typical_volume": 96235.35, "trend": 19.717333, "fair_value": 15.184135, "relative_strength": 1.677801, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.883153, "energy": 38.261974, "activity_lines": [ 21.108, 20.916182, 20.483, 20.157699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.54, "volume": 98466, "typical_volume": 96988.8, "trend": 19.796333, "fair_value": 15.252083, "relative_strength": 1.264278, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.342929, "energy": 23.932296, "activity_lines": [ 20.855333, 20.897273, 20.52419, 20.210774 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.43, "volume": 65603, "typical_volume": 88976.15, "trend": 19.898667, "fair_value": 15.326314, "relative_strength": 0.352736, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.138972, "energy": 26.677636, "activity_lines": [ 20.985333, 21.026545, 20.642095, 20.316172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }