{ "ticker": { "uuid": "566fc778-413d-4eaa-b4e9-5761a6a17aab", "symbol": "NXGL", "name": "Nexgel Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.219, "architecture_energy": 70.624, "architecture_maturity": 94.0, "architecture_confidence": 89.039, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.31, "rotation_up": 17.5, "upward_expansion": 13.7, "deceleration": 41.8, "rotation_down": 69.78, "downward_expansion": 89.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.42254, 0.467604, 0.51174, 0.593973 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.38, "trend_reference": 0.773543, "distance_from_trend": -0.508754, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.176871, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.825437, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -76.272851, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.700787, "excess_performance": -0.888241, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.508754, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.353601, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.825437, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080721, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.762729, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026347, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.700787, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.624613, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 659222, "relative_activity": 0.54298, "balance": 0.624613, "dry_up": 0.348259, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.280182, "annualized_volatility": 0.664547, "from_high_reference": -0.868508, "from_low_reference": 0.150469 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.773543, "fair_value_reference": 2.176871, "structural_low": 0.3303, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.060073, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.066962, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.453704, "worst_return": -0.433802, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.015132, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.130205, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.202247, "worst_return": -0.478174, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.176184, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.065588, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.175926, "worst_return": -0.666611, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.012781, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.365369, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.719101, "worst_return": -0.744664, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.193617, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.146718, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.063063, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014151, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.041667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.089172, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007663, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.175299, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.170569, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.643557, "energy": 57.774809, "activity_lines": [ 0.48556, 0.514602, 0.54481, 0.650951 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.4151, "volume": 144060, "typical_volume": 1227368.45, "trend": 0.815877, "fair_value": 2.186486, "relative_strength": -73.713627, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.043346, "energy": 67.638167, "activity_lines": [ 0.456407, 0.493158, 0.528956, 0.622094 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.38, "volume": 659222, "typical_volume": 1214081.75, "trend": 0.773543, "fair_value": 2.176871, "relative_strength": -76.272851, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.21875, "energy": 70.624164, "activity_lines": [ 0.42254, 0.467604, 0.51174, 0.593973 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }