{ "ticker": { "uuid": "567100ff-3135-4b9a-bd44-7c0be1003d0e", "symbol": "CODW", "name": "Amundi ETF ICAV - Amundi S&P World Consumer Discretionary Screened UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 56.325, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.54, "architecture_energy": 26.806, "architecture_maturity": 34.105, "architecture_confidence": 68.184, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.87, "rotation_up": 44.68, "upward_expansion": 68.85, "deceleration": 82.49, "rotation_down": 27.35, "downward_expansion": 13.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.3132, 13.301673, 13.280857, 13.157503 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.602, "trend_reference": 13.075267, "distance_from_trend": 0.040285, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.258436, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.109603, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.623097, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.070097, "excess_performance": 0.016785, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.040285, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004974, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.109603, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.632843, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.036231, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057414, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.070097, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.361278, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2745, "relative_activity": 0.31675, "balance": 5.361278, "dry_up": 0.741737, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028644, "annualized_volatility": 0.193779, "from_high_reference": -0.030644, "from_low_reference": 0.140725 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.075267, "fair_value_reference": 12.258436, "structural_low": 11.924, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.014285, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.012339, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.054763, "worst_return": -0.10761, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.055235, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.01781, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.084909, "worst_return": -0.133119, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.026352, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.02477, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.275602, "worst_return": -0.060652, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.0488, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.038668, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.306468, "worst_return": -0.974471, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.172269, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.113638, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.057029, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.072348, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008089, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.016288, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015717, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.020001, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": 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13.344333, 13.3388, 13.193457, 13.112553 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.572, "volume": 4517, "typical_volume": 9789.15, "trend": 13.116333, "fair_value": 12.210353, "relative_strength": 0.2227, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.934358, "energy": 53.826939, "activity_lines": [ 13.4396, 13.379, 13.246429, 13.141953 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.648, "volume": 5967, "typical_volume": 9006.55, "trend": 13.0863, "fair_value": 12.222462, "relative_strength": -6.859067, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.950118, "energy": 8.998681, "activity_lines": [ 13.196133, 13.248527, 13.207786, 13.111738 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.28, "volume": 12483, "typical_volume": 8694.45, "trend": 13.086333, "fair_value": 12.238808, "relative_strength": -3.710676, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.557469, "energy": 15.302793, "activity_lines": [ 13.205733, 13.243727, 13.230552, 13.124234 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.602, "volume": 2745, "typical_volume": 8666.15, "trend": 13.075267, "fair_value": 12.258436, "relative_strength": -3.623097, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.539802, "energy": 26.805798, "activity_lines": [ 13.3132, 13.301673, 13.280857, 13.157503 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }