{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "56724119-4408-42cd-bb0d-4c1d6a2970dc",
    "symbol": "KREF",
    "name": "KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 1,
    "stage_name": "Basing",
    "phase": "1c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch",
    "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch",
    "confidence": 83.289,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_up",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up",
    "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 78.332,
    "architecture_energy": 62.564,
    "architecture_maturity": 22.901,
    "architecture_confidence": 74.385,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 17.71,
        "rotation_up": 67.13,
        "upward_expansion": 87.47,
        "deceleration": 45.61,
        "rotation_down": 15.85,
        "downward_expansion": 11.81
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        7.373333,
        7.263882,
        6.986181,
        6.846776
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 7.76,
    "trend_reference": 6.829413,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.136262,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 8.317457,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.067023,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -6.700148,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.103414,
    "excess_performance": -0.022211,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.136262,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.032125,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.067023,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.162996,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.067001,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.18217,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.103414,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.040769,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 5048987,
      "relative_activity": 0.846204,
      "balance": 2.040769,
      "dry_up": 1.069461,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.060897,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.348022,
      "from_high_reference": -0.143161,
      "from_low_reference": 0.478095
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 6.829413,
      "fair_value_reference": 8.317457,
      "structural_low": 5.25,
      "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": -0.038258,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": -0.019855,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.122378,
        "worst_return": -0.104851,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.129663,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": -0.094861,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.044364,
        "worst_return": -0.161165,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.127768,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": -0.176314,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.046852,
        "worst_return": -0.229597,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.098156,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.273372,
        "regime_survival": 0.666667,
        "best_return": 0.108848,
        "worst_return": -0.334384,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-11-01",
        "end": "2024-12-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.113793,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-01-03",
        "end": "2025-01-31",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.038536,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-02-07",
        "end": "2025-02-21",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.008993,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-02-28",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.118008,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-07-25",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.10385,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-08-29",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.061742,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-10-03",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.05761,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-10-31",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.034401,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "return": 0.055909,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2025-12-12",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.068345,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "return": -0.108436,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.012681,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "return": 0.103841,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "energy": 43.351016,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "typical_volume": 6734589.2,
        "trend": 6.858834,
        "fair_value": 8.339129,
        "relative_strength": -8.844426,
        "stage": 1,
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        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 39.825164,
        "energy": 52.099987,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 6.96,
        "volume": 5189142,
        "typical_volume": 6600700.35,
        "trend": 6.825666,
        "fair_value": 8.325283,
        "relative_strength": -13.883234,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 32.543445,
        "energy": 39.943471,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 7.76,
        "volume": 5048987,
        "typical_volume": 5966630.95,
        "trend": 6.829413,
        "fair_value": 8.317457,
        "relative_strength": -6.700148,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 78.332381,
        "energy": 62.564467,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}