{ "ticker": { "uuid": "56747a31-abb4-427b-98a6-e0891a26c8d4", "symbol": "I06", "name": "Intraco Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.811, "architecture_energy": 75.875, "architecture_maturity": 8.266, "architecture_confidence": 76.564, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.81, "rotation_up": 10.76, "upward_expansion": 19.67, "deceleration": 34.76, "rotation_down": 72.75, "downward_expansion": 88.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.340667, 0.352182, 0.36382, 0.367415 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.37, "trend_reference": 0.371234, "distance_from_trend": -0.003323, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.299955, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.23352, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.008139, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.006711, "excess_performance": -0.161547, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.003323, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004575, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.23352, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117996, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.150081, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117102, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.006711, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.831754, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 41500, "relative_activity": 1.114992, "balance": 2.831754, "dry_up": 1.062601, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046778, "annualized_volatility": 0.324727, "from_high_reference": -0.056375, "from_low_reference": 0.298246 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.371234, "fair_value_reference": 0.299955, "structural_low": 0.285, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.018868, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.352941, "median_excess_return": 0.007814, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 1.041671, "worst_return": -0.158728, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.032654, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.042816, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.458334, "worst_return": -0.104166, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.030244, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.03211, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.291669, "worst_return": -0.172416, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"green", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.222224, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.253056, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.014924, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.012986, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.462067, "energy": 31.671842, "activity_lines": [ 0.380667, 0.381273, 0.3792, 0.377767 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.38, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 53065.0, "trend": 0.376077, "fair_value": 0.296398, "relative_strength": -10.966812, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.371183, "energy": 21.417844, "activity_lines": [ 0.380333, 0.381, 0.379486, 0.378047 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.32, "volume": 51400, "typical_volume": 54995.0, "trend": 0.37449, "fair_value": 0.297207, "relative_strength": -25.109903, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.57425, "energy": 83.051065, "activity_lines": [ 0.36, 0.369818, 0.374021, 0.374429 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.32, "volume": 58100, "typical_volume": 50460.0, "trend": 0.372903, "fair_value": 0.297886, "relative_strength": -25.739159, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -92.475025, "energy": 96.645459, "activity_lines": [ 0.344, 0.359818, 0.368784, 0.370913 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.32, "volume": 7200, "typical_volume": 35395.0, "trend": 0.371317, "fair_value": 0.29867, "relative_strength": -25.792594, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.284816, "energy": 95.406435, "activity_lines": [ 0.332, 0.350909, 0.363796, 0.3675 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.37, "volume": 41500, "typical_volume": 37220.0, "trend": 0.371234, "fair_value": 0.299955, "relative_strength": -15.008139, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.811055, "energy": 75.87477, "activity_lines": [ 0.340667, 0.352182, 0.36382, 0.367415 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }