{ "ticker": { "uuid": "56749644-eb58-4062-a86a-8c690eefc93d", "symbol": "HANZA", "name": "Hanza AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 65.526, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -40.422, "architecture_energy": 49.817, "architecture_maturity": 16.698, "architecture_confidence": 71.069, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.6, "rotation_up": 19.33, "upward_expansion": 16.94, "deceleration": 48.62, "rotation_down": 66.5, "downward_expansion": 58.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 134.319998, 137.89818, 147.170131, 148.640909 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 132.0, "trend_reference": 148.102431, "distance_from_trend": -0.108725, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 92.35868, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.429211, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.040269, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.056893, "excess_performance": -0.118387, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.108725, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055104, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.429211, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.592733, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.130403, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.465165, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.056893, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.685726, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 581312, "relative_activity": 0.914088, "balance": 0.685726, "dry_up": 1.554644, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089161, "annualized_volatility": 0.587378, "from_high_reference": -0.269912, "from_low_reference": 0.32901 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 148.102431, "fair_value_reference": 92.35868, "structural_low": 122.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.022328, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.016991, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.116279, "worst_return": -0.130631, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.218968, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.090627, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.404908, "worst_return": -0.08568, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.13394, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.199972, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.761003, "worst_return": -0.053418, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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-12.327112, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.837307, "energy": 44.28824, "activity_lines": [ 139.626665, 151.429952, 153.843262, 151.681711 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 136.0, "volume": 1045280, "typical_volume": 718673.9, "trend": 146.933261, "fair_value": 91.315293, "relative_strength": -5.794245, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.33331, "energy": 56.569727, "activity_lines": [ 136.759998, 147.130908, 152.083974, 151.011304 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 139.199997, "volume": 1630970, "typical_volume": 752349.3, "trend": 147.5224, "fair_value": 91.676811, "relative_strength": -5.219446, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.710818, "energy": 51.48222, "activity_lines": [ 136.693331, 144.134544, 150.718176, 150.512384 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 134.399994, "volume": 697124, "typical_volume": 636763.25, "trend": 147.885457, "fair_value": 92.024821, "relative_strength": -9.738004, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.731651, "energy": 50.834272, "activity_lines": [ 135.61333, 140.825452, 149.012153, 149.665777 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 132.0, "volume": 581312, "typical_volume": 635947.3, "trend": 148.102431, "fair_value": 92.35868, "relative_strength": -13.040269, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.421927, "energy": 49.817237, "activity_lines": [ 134.319998, 137.89818, 147.170131, 148.640909 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }