{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5677b341-98b3-4272-aa60-2c771939014e", "symbol": "601975", "name": "Nanjing Tanker Corporation", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 49.344, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -31.38, "architecture_energy": 41.123, "architecture_maturity": 16.479, "architecture_confidence": 53.41, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.38, "rotation_up": 21.6, "upward_expansion": 14.72, "deceleration": 50.34, "rotation_down": 55.59, "downward_expansion": 51.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.582, 3.690909, 4.079053, 4.178944 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.71, "trend_reference": 4.149829, "distance_from_trend": -0.105987, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.327042, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.115105, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.262847, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.010559, "excess_performance": 0.053762, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.105987, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061469, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.115105, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.420238, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.012628, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.345068, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.010559, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.873442, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 842253869, "relative_activity": 0.729348, "balance": 0.873442, "dry_up": 0.773077, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.155906, "annualized_volatility": 0.632941, "from_high_reference": -0.378507, "from_low_reference": 0.322327 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.149829, "fair_value_reference": 3.327042, "structural_low": 3.25, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.042623, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.043688, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.124088, "worst_return": -0.070122, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.044983, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.136669, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.02439, "worst_return": -0.114355, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.123516, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.195612, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.030488, "worst_return": -0.216545, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.18842, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.249557, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.131098, "worst_return": -0.245742, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.029333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.068182, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.070122, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.149305, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.110119, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057047, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.08254, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.131035, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.061919, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006558, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.13245, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.228469, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.173077, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.131098, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 3.143932, "volume": 342650801, "typical_volume": 435399765.75, "trend": 3.634425, "fair_value": 2.890101, "relative_strength": -22.634116, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 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3.28, "volume": 941184038, "typical_volume": 1454510286.5, "trend": 4.08862, "fair_value": 3.317057, "relative_strength": -5.479086, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.165797, "energy": 61.45015, "activity_lines": [ 3.604, 3.971379, 4.298399, 4.271229 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.54, "volume": 1030615045, "typical_volume": 1317288382.55, "trend": 4.105471, "fair_value": 3.320489, "relative_strength": 0.411344, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.146291, "energy": 60.752373, "activity_lines": [ 3.512, 3.831827, 4.212203, 4.235834 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.64, "volume": 756956829, "typical_volume": 1234266316.85, "trend": 4.126318, "fair_value": 3.323286, "relative_strength": 2.453796, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.428835, "energy": 55.220455, "activity_lines": [ 3.518, 3.735636, 4.140609, 4.205803 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.71, "volume": 842253869, "typical_volume": 1154804339.3, "trend": 4.149829, "fair_value": 3.327042, "relative_strength": 1.262847, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.379998, "energy": 41.123036, "activity_lines": [ 3.582, 3.690909, 4.079053, 4.178944 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }