{ "ticker": { "uuid": "567c1890-3c14-4cbf-b0df-28def921c465", "symbol": "TPOR", "name": "DIREXION DAILY TRANSPORTATION BULL 3X ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 44.811, "architecture_energy": 32.204, "architecture_maturity": 58.887, "architecture_confidence": 64.547, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.34, "rotation_up": 40.37, "upward_expansion": 65.51, "deceleration": 63.38, "rotation_down": 24.92, "downward_expansion": 15.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.190413, 42.455234, 40.450042, 38.473406 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 42.16, "trend_reference": 36.52562, "distance_from_trend": 0.154258, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.227344, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.394764, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 14.455006, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.074853, "excess_performance": -0.050772, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.154258, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.126825, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.394764, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.196432, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.14455, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066853, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.074853, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.498842, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 88019, "relative_activity": 0.797411, "balance": 2.498842, "dry_up": 0.962322, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102839, "annualized_volatility": 0.598504, "from_high_reference": -0.09953, "from_low_reference": 0.81694 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.52562, "fair_value_reference": 30.227344, "structural_low": 25.83, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.011938, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": -0.03114, "regime_survival": 0.647059, "best_return": 0.209547, "worst_return": -0.245955, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.108564, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.135697, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.555691, "worst_return": -0.229289, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.261913, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.291553, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.183099, "worst_return": -0.380784, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.392344, "energy": 75.770101, "activity_lines": [ 44.001197, 42.264177, 39.03667, 37.379136 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 43.485, "volume": 83741, "typical_volume": 111445.75, "trend": 35.980998, "fair_value": 30.114411, "relative_strength": 25.119742, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.852695, "energy": 67.754249, "activity_lines": [ 44.171827, 42.808719, 39.747627, 37.889942 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.12, "volume": 147422, "typical_volume": 111025.0, "trend": 36.255307, "fair_value": 30.157292, "relative_strength": 10.64894, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.867339, "energy": 41.269352, "activity_lines": [ 42.549787, 42.388027, 39.982851, 38.092459 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.16, "volume": 88019, "typical_volume": 110380.95, "trend": 36.52562, "fair_value": 30.227344, "relative_strength": 14.455006, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.810999, "energy": 32.203881, "activity_lines": [ 42.190413, 42.455234, 40.450042, 38.473406 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }