{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5681081c-8e52-405f-8853-01efb099d0c0", "symbol": "4306", "name": "Yem Chio Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 50.214, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 54.449, "architecture_energy": 30.403, "architecture_maturity": 55.997, "architecture_confidence": 77.139, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.18, "rotation_up": 33.05, "upward_expansion": 60.44, "deceleration": 90.89, "rotation_down": 25.62, "downward_expansion": 15.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.82, 14.889953, 14.500207, 14.113543 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 15.5, "trend_reference": 13.685494, "distance_from_trend": 0.132586, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.670973, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.056508, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.382327, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.211426, "excess_performance": -0.229946, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.132586, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04568, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.056508, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.180103, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.183823, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.183153, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.211426, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.490409, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7541335, "relative_activity": 0.972421, "balance": 2.490409, "dry_up": 0.679936, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059249, "annualized_volatility": 0.231656, "from_high_reference": -0.022102, "from_low_reference": 0.278198 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.685494, "fair_value_reference": 14.670973, "structural_low": 12.412903, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.000269, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.028512, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.031884, "worst_return": -0.050544, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.08291, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.037049, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.157738, "worst_return": -0.07802, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.11485, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.058877, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.261463, "worst_return": -0.081073, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.052776, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.047452, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.240205, "worst_return": -0.076922, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-10-13", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.03003, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.080357, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.170016, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028571, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.00831, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.025, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.005702, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02439, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.025926, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.056391, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.064057, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066539, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.072664, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 12.132673, "volume": 2230975, "typical_volume": 6374210.4, "trend": 12.34355, "fair_value": 11.056083, "relative_strength": -5.430654, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 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-22.030633, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.01812, "energy": 43.003433, "activity_lines": [ 14.87914, 14.892604, 14.231488, 13.887251 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.35, "volume": 5996370, "typical_volume": 8122330.7, "trend": 13.597441, "fair_value": 14.636678, "relative_strength": -21.488548, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.287474, "energy": 26.068112, "activity_lines": [ 14.653505, 14.83356, 14.289398, 13.937402 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.45, "volume": 2846184, "typical_volume": 7903181.2, "trend": 13.622376, "fair_value": 14.650728, "relative_strength": -21.997875, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.637439, "energy": 22.699684, "activity_lines": [ 14.516667, 14.775707, 14.348743, 13.992406 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 15.5, "volume": 7541335, "typical_volume": 7755219.4, "trend": 13.685494, "fair_value": 14.670973, "relative_strength": -18.382327, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.448876, "energy": 30.402522, "activity_lines": [ 14.82, 14.889953, 14.500207, 14.113543 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }