{ "ticker": { "uuid": "56883439-c6dc-4126-acfe-03df6c1a4aea", "symbol": "ALF", "name": "Allied Farmers Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -75.62, "architecture_energy": 45.633, "architecture_maturity": 86.868, "architecture_confidence": 84.402, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.86, "rotation_up": 26.61, "upward_expansion": 7.05, "deceleration": 57.21, "rotation_down": 53.92, "downward_expansion": 78.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.635333, 0.637545, 0.647976, 0.664602 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.6, "trend_reference": 0.693833, "distance_from_trend": -0.135239, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.755545, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.205871, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.382252, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.205298, "excess_performance": -0.233572, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.135239, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071795, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.205871, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093505, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.213823, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097143, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.205298, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.054242, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12367, "relative_activity": 0.570134, "balance": 3.054242, "dry_up": 0.477908, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05641, "annualized_volatility": 0.328205, "from_high_reference": -0.294118, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.693833, "fair_value_reference": 0.755545, "structural_low": 0.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.391304, "directional_follow_through": 0.434783, "median_excess_return": -0.002323, "regime_survival": 0.695652, "best_return": 0.067568, "worst_return": -0.090909, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.02867, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.088235, "worst_return": -0.13245, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.040541, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.051763, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.161765, "worst_return": -0.041096, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.064935, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025641, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.038961, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.052632, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.059211, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.074074, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.205298, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.68, "volume": 47497, "typical_volume": 28320.65, "trend": 0.720333, "fair_value": 0.697345, "relative_strength": -6.229713, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.444787, "energy": 56.673142, "activity_lines": [ 0.634333, 0.642455, 0.656595, 0.677753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.63, "volume": 17054, "typical_volume": 21514.85, "trend": 0.706, "fair_value": 0.75609, "relative_strength": -18.001922, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.46363, "energy": 54.786988, "activity_lines": [ 0.632, 0.638818, 0.652452, 0.672505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.685, "volume": 1629, "typical_volume": 21548.45, "trend": 0.7015, "fair_value": 0.756058, "relative_strength": -10.018538, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.315245, "energy": 23.048999, "activity_lines": [ 0.649, 0.646182, 0.654119, 0.671151 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.6, "volume": 12367, "typical_volume": 21691.4, "trend": 0.693833, "fair_value": 0.755545, "relative_strength": -21.382252, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.620293, "energy": 45.633162, "activity_lines": [ 0.635333, 0.637545, 0.647976, 0.664602 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }