{ "ticker": { "uuid": "56889803-9001-48fc-9237-5a10da1f9ef3", "symbol": "AVER", "name": "Averbuch Formica Center Ltd.", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 75.973, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.348, "architecture_energy": 42.536, "architecture_maturity": 18.661, "architecture_confidence": 61.307, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.79, "rotation_up": 9.07, "upward_expansion": 12.16, "deceleration": 52.19, "rotation_down": 73.68, "downward_expansion": 73.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.540667, 12.746182, 12.95119, 12.940215 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.97, "trend_reference": 13.027333, "distance_from_trend": -0.157924, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.651872, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.196447, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -24.770623, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.167046, "excess_performance": -0.195947, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.157924, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002128, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.196447, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024444, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.247706, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011978, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.167046, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.582564, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3713, "relative_activity": 0.397131, "balance": 0.582564, "dry_up": 0.84472, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.183157, "annualized_volatility": 0.6516, "from_high_reference": -0.446239, "from_low_reference": 0.070244 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.027333, "fair_value_reference": 13.651872, "structural_low": 10.62, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.010377, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.011321, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.150418, "worst_return": -0.100529, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.063191, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.083357, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.298578, "worst_return": -0.093227, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.117, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.023145, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.260854, "worst_return": -0.222707, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.218957, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.34148, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.315648, "worst_return": -0.638384, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-08-18", "end": "2023-09-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.044206, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-09-15", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.719153, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.047368, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023742, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.03229, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.145972, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.034351, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.058526, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.076277, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035604, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.032103, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.05969, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.263811, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.084307, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 36.42, "volume": 7450, "typical_volume": 5849.9, "trend": 36.786667, "fair_value": 28.32324, "relative_strength": -0.809937, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": 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23.193019, "energy": 23.791687, "activity_lines": [ 13.268, 12.946545, 12.770905, 12.899978 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 17.74, "volume": 6806, "typical_volume": 5854.8, "trend": 13.199667, "fair_value": 14.599115, "relative_strength": 23.390384, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.963954, "energy": 79.095703, "activity_lines": [ 14.748667, 13.871636, 13.242286, 13.203892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 16.22, "volume": 6269, "typical_volume": 6086.6, "trend": 13.324333, "fair_value": 14.454436, "relative_strength": 9.950921, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.903434, "energy": 78.151167, "activity_lines": [ 15.448667, 14.414182, 13.547143, 13.398753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 12.24, "volume": 39251, "typical_volume": 8012.15, "trend": 13.313333, "fair_value": 14.285782, "relative_strength": -15.43765, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.07734, "energy": 47.699258, "activity_lines": [ 14.636, 14.149091, 13.458571, 13.328796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.06, "volume": 12830, "typical_volume": 8599.65, "trend": 13.304333, "fair_value": 14.120013, "relative_strength": -11.426366, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.644882, "energy": 30.801724, "activity_lines": [ 14.138, 14.037455, 13.451333, 13.312452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.98, "volume": 6686, "typical_volume": 8772.15, "trend": 13.255333, "fair_value": 13.950205, "relative_strength": -20.647246, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.544018, "energy": 12.72953, "activity_lines": [ 13.269333, 13.713818, 13.340524, 13.227011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.99, "volume": 8362, "typical_volume": 9165.85, "trend": 13.15, "fair_value": 13.808667, "relative_strength": -25.012303, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.222301, "energy": 31.243874, "activity_lines": [ 12.183333, 13.207818, 13.141476, 13.08086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.97, "volume": 3713, "typical_volume": 9349.55, "trend": 13.027333, "fair_value": 13.651872, "relative_strength": -24.770623, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.348318, "energy": 42.535535, "activity_lines": [ 11.540667, 12.746182, 12.95119, 12.940215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }