{ "ticker": { "uuid": "568b544d-ee26-4d61-b6b6-487163c02903", "symbol": "ARG", "name": "Argosy Property Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.49, "architecture_energy": 34.595, "architecture_maturity": 76.432, "architecture_confidence": 85.426, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.98, "rotation_up": 26.52, "upward_expansion": 4.22, "deceleration": 59.62, "rotation_down": 43.9, "downward_expansion": 77.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.045667, 1.048242, 1.053789, 1.068851 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.04, "trend_reference": 1.094866, "distance_from_trend": -0.050112, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.037836, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.002085, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.302528, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.082502, "excess_performance": -0.110776, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.050112, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050244, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.002085, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028649, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.123025, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050385, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.082502, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.67835, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3137767, "relative_activity": 0.920736, "balance": 0.67835, "dry_up": 1.119878, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028832, "annualized_volatility": 0.134084, "from_high_reference": -0.205117, "from_low_reference": 0.020919 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.094866, "fair_value_reference": 1.037836, "structural_low": 1.01869, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.001356, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.005184, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.089622, "worst_return": -0.113553, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.005258, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.010648, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.154559, "worst_return": -0.097403, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.008741, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.043209, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.150926, "worst_return": -0.184193, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018349, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.049012, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.050505, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.072374, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009259, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": 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"fair_value": 1.037042, "relative_strength": -13.573004, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.727168, "energy": 47.161506, "activity_lines": [ 1.047667, 1.049704, 1.064049, 1.084595 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.05, "volume": 2741204, "typical_volume": 3238654.95, "trend": 1.112419, "fair_value": 1.037412, "relative_strength": -11.16809, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.293195, "energy": 44.259492, "activity_lines": [ 1.046667, 1.049504, 1.061058, 1.080219 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.065, "volume": 5921931, "typical_volume": 3454272.25, "trend": 1.107507, "fair_value": 1.03766, "relative_strength": -10.273446, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.894623, "energy": 37.608699, "activity_lines": [ 1.051, 1.052267, 1.059847, 1.07716 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.04, "volume": 3464785, "typical_volume": 3471765.4, "trend": 1.101268, "fair_value": 1.037775, "relative_strength": -11.700198, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.846033, "energy": 39.148015, "activity_lines": [ 1.047667, 1.050269, 1.056627, 1.072804 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.04, "volume": 3137767, "typical_volume": 3407889.35, "trend": 1.094866, "fair_value": 1.037836, "relative_strength": -12.302528, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.489673, "energy": 34.595014, "activity_lines": [ 1.045667, 1.048242, 1.053789, 1.068851 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }