{ "ticker": { "uuid": "568deb59-2848-4fce-a013-5855995b780a", "symbol": "LR", "name": "Legrand SA", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -20.663, "architecture_energy": 42.667, "architecture_maturity": 4.192, "architecture_confidence": 76.522, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.27, "rotation_up": 15.83, "upward_expansion": 23.46, "deceleration": 50.63, "rotation_down": 60.82, "downward_expansion": 50.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 136.870002, 138.876365, 142.006112, 141.879421 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 140.350006, "trend_reference": 140.687816, "distance_from_trend": -0.002401, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 108.429194, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.294393, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.715155, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.019557, "excess_performance": -0.15469, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.002401, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035419, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.294393, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.202907, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.167152, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.179873, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.019557, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.261905, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.261905, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05301, "annualized_volatility": 0.356127, "from_high_reference": -0.134228, "from_low_reference": 0.16819 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 140.687816, "fair_value_reference": 108.429194, "structural_low": 126.145344, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.000394, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.005073, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.178127, "worst_return": -0.107968, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.020824, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.01483, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.364222, "worst_return": -0.036343, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.116259, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.054892, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.161758, "worst_return": -0.06135, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.092766, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.250455, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.014168, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003155, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.102877, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-27", 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148.216806, 144.588553, 141.108325 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 133.5, "volume": 77, "typical_volume": 76.3, "trend": 136.626955, "fair_value": 105.5786, "relative_strength": -18.058387, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.47973, "energy": 13.517698, "activity_lines": [ 142.325261, 145.738069, 143.789395, 140.920392 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 150.75, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 76.3, "trend": 137.484829, "fair_value": 106.015643, "relative_strength": -11.170652, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.851846, "energy": 23.013568, "activity_lines": [ 144.303514, 146.39168, 144.591747, 141.831556 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 144.949997, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 65.3, "trend": 138.047693, "fair_value": 106.402552, "relative_strength": -12.787193, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.78071, "energy": 18.898771, "activity_lines": [ 144.23, 145.919087, 144.757118, 142.31318 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 144.050003, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 59.5, "trend": 138.593676, "fair_value": 106.794829, "relative_strength": -15.240092, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.317051, "energy": 16.931181, "activity_lines": [ 144.210001, 145.332756, 144.80205, 142.700426 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 139.949997, "volume": 140, "typical_volume": 66.5, "trend": 139.09811, "fair_value": 107.135885, "relative_strength": -16.412031, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.857636, "energy": 6.610755, "activity_lines": [ 143.053333, 144.088699, 144.459334, 142.78793 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 135.600006, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 66.5, "trend": 139.510022, "fair_value": 107.455231, "relative_strength": -17.098994, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -7.70336, "energy": 14.166435, "activity_lines": [ 140.706668, 142.217799, 143.740851, 142.562246 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 133.850006, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 38.85, "trend": 139.812763, "fair_value": 107.761664, "relative_strength": -18.964097, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.746704, "energy": 40.708084, "activity_lines": [ 137.63667, 140.383687, 142.929459, 142.197084 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 134.649994, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 38.85, "trend": 140.11101, "fair_value": 108.085695, "relative_strength": -18.054013, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.148961, "energy": 47.550089, "activity_lines": [ 135.960001, 138.970001, 142.192475, 141.864002 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 140.350006, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 34.9, "trend": 140.687816, "fair_value": 108.429194, "relative_strength": -16.715155, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.662691, "energy": 42.666796, "activity_lines": [ 136.870002, 138.876365, 142.006112, 141.879421 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }