{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5690db6f-b239-4848-88af-9e149331bb3a", "symbol": "NV", "name": "Nova Organic Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 61.028, "architecture_energy": 39.117, "architecture_maturity": 18.649, "architecture_confidence": 69.351, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.46, "rotation_up": 54.87, "upward_expansion": 77.93, "deceleration": 58.5, "rotation_down": 18.52, "downward_expansion": 4.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.598667, 0.590545, 0.563048, 0.55071 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.61, "trend_reference": 0.537667, "distance_from_trend": 0.134532, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.043141, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.415228, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.713691, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.244898, "excess_performance": 0.052573, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.134532, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022424, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.415228, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.15087, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.167137, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.159503, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.244898, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.544686, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1207000, "relative_activity": 1.060353, "balance": 1.544686, "dry_up": 1.270579, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093317, "annualized_volatility": 0.29562, "from_high_reference": -0.445455, "from_low_reference": 0.648649 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.537667, "fair_value_reference": 1.043141, "structural_low": 0.37, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.079274, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.092938, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.05102, "worst_return": -0.107527, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.367347, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.402166, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.367347, "worst_return": -0.367347, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.5, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.575405, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.5, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.266667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.441176, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.081633, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.253012, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.032258, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.083333, 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.58, "volume": 2403900, "typical_volume": 1017545.0, "trend": 0.536, "fair_value": 1.082244, "relative_strength": -25.65126, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.617653, "energy": 63.774433, "activity_lines": [ 0.592667, 0.565818, 0.545, 0.538323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.6, "volume": 1521200, "typical_volume": 1063200.0, "trend": 0.536, "fair_value": 1.06891, "relative_strength": -22.310836, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.614539, "energy": 61.692033, "activity_lines": [ 0.597333, 0.575273, 0.551333, 0.542452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.59, "volume": 653100, "typical_volume": 1083255.0, "trend": 0.536, "fair_value": 1.055769, "relative_strength": -21.321839, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.542661, "energy": 51.088634, "activity_lines": [ 0.595333, 0.581818, 0.556381, 0.545935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.61, "volume": 1207000, "typical_volume": 1138300.0, "trend": 0.537667, "fair_value": 1.043141, "relative_strength": -16.713691, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.028318, "energy": 39.116587, "activity_lines": [ 0.598667, 0.590545, 0.563048, 0.55071 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }