{ "ticker": { "uuid": "56921797-d155-40a9-a796-61f65d3640f7", "symbol": "XELPMOC", "name": "Xelpmoc Design and Tech Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.171, "architecture_energy": 55.374, "architecture_maturity": 58.39, "architecture_confidence": 89.088, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.06, "rotation_up": 22.43, "upward_expansion": 8.96, "deceleration": 50.3, "rotation_down": 60.69, "downward_expansion": 84.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 81.49, 82.988908, 88.426857, 93.627419 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 81.599998, "trend_reference": 103.13, "distance_from_trend": -0.208766, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 110.814231, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.263633, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.142849, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.417434, "excess_performance": -0.373725, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.208766, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.123216, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.263633, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099463, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.241428, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11713, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.417434, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.624314, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 46619, "relative_activity": 0.594284, "balance": 2.624314, "dry_up": 0.578926, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090554, "annualized_volatility": 0.466059, "from_high_reference": -0.475241, "from_low_reference": 0.073684 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 103.13, "fair_value_reference": 110.814231, "structural_low": 76.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.049111, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.059034, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.250193, "worst_return": -0.255116, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.09124, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.175572, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.23893, "worst_return": -0.325973, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.058974, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.156014, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.349639, "worst_return": -0.409225, "sufficient": true }, { 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 81.220001, "volume": 41150, "typical_volume": 92689.95, "trend": 107.809666, "fair_value": 111.128077, "relative_strength": -24.047523, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.083909, "energy": 75.716574, "activity_lines": [ 83.736666, 87.023454, 91.989571, 98.441742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 81.190002, "volume": 51265, "typical_volume": 93380.6, "trend": 106.21, "fair_value": 111.072244, "relative_strength": -22.187921, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.726126, "energy": 66.366807, "activity_lines": [ 82.618667, 85.314363, 90.633285, 96.724344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 81.25, "volume": 42623, "typical_volume": 88216.25, "trend": 104.642333, "fair_value": 110.934103, "relative_strength": -24.003052, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.655773, "energy": 62.593627, "activity_lines": [ 81.838, 83.934, 89.477952, 95.114021 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 81.599998, "volume": 46619, "typical_volume": 78445.7, "trend": 103.13, "fair_value": 110.814231, "relative_strength": -24.142849, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.170629, "energy": 55.373942, "activity_lines": [ 81.49, 82.988908, 88.426857, 93.627419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }