{ "ticker": { "uuid": "56961d87-b044-4b8b-a872-2d0be0146907", "symbol": "JFIN", "name": "Jiayin Group Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.562, "architecture_energy": 70.953, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.71, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.89, "rotation_up": 14.82, "upward_expansion": 14.07, "deceleration": 45.83, "rotation_down": 73.26, "downward_expansion": 89.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.406667, 2.695636, 3.311143, 3.84086 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 2.61, "trend_reference": 4.625, "distance_from_trend": -0.435676, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.043206, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.62943, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -66.651984, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.587678, "excess_performance": -0.775131, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.435676, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.23279, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.62943, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.322024, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.66652, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086004, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.587678, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.404151, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 308140, "relative_activity": 0.804873, "balance": 0.404151, "dry_up": 0.720617, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.216499, "annualized_volatility": 0.708239, "from_high_reference": -0.822449, "from_low_reference": 0.234043 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.625, "fair_value_reference": 7.043206, "structural_low": 2.115, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.044219, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.059288, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.305085, "worst_return": -0.287415, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.19457, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.056151, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.35955, "worst_return": -0.536481, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.095023, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.146686, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.736308, "worst_return": -0.537239, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.34629, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016461, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.029689, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.243612, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.347568, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.082667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.067736, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.063005, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.123524, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.740814, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 4.663419, "volume": 624034, "typical_volume": 857095.55, "trend": 3.537753, "fair_value": 2.679607, "relative_strength": 49.915308, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 2.49, "volume": 346311, "typical_volume": 382175.15, "trend": 5.032, "fair_value": 7.100893, "relative_strength": -70.18858, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.076468, "energy": 93.636644, "activity_lines": [ 2.857333, 3.280909, 3.819905, 4.342022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.16, "volume": 315580, "typical_volume": 386196.8, "trend": 4.897333, "fair_value": 7.077294, "relative_strength": -72.707273, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.691773, "energy": 93.827595, "activity_lines": [ 2.556, 3.02, 3.617048, 4.156731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.16, "volume": 133502, "typical_volume": 381923.85, "trend": 4.768667, "fair_value": 7.056474, "relative_strength": -71.895605, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.213022, "energy": 89.719426, "activity_lines": [ 2.378, 2.800364, 3.43381, 3.980129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.61, "volume": 308140, "typical_volume": 382843.05, "trend": 4.625, "fair_value": 7.043206, "relative_strength": -66.651984, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.561611, "energy": 70.953396, "activity_lines": [ 2.406667, 2.695636, 3.311143, 3.84086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }