{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5698d27f-4c20-47ff-b0c0-e8843d21d391", "symbol": "BAKN", "name": "Braskem S.A.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.888, "architecture_energy": 90.267, "architecture_maturity": 26.0, "architecture_confidence": 83.284, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.48, "rotation_up": 8.05, "upward_expansion": 21.96, "deceleration": 37.01, "rotation_down": 85.31, "downward_expansion": 99.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.57, 48.312545, 57.230285, 61.162064 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 42.0, "trend_reference": 64.555333, "distance_from_trend": -0.349395, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 120.173269, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.650505, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.307386, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.363636, "excess_performance": -0.30897, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.349395, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022432, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.650505, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.132965, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.343074, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.15333, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.363636, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.34403, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.34403, "dry_up": 0.007248, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.113352, "annualized_volatility": 0.906267, "from_high_reference": -0.510718, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 64.555333, "fair_value_reference": 120.173269, "structural_low": 42.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.210526, "directional_follow_through": 0.210526, "median_excess_return": -0.01271, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.134468, "worst_return": -0.433591, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.022356, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.17519, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.062747, "worst_return": -0.460375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.27714, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.327252, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.037227, "worst_return": -0.527808, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-79.2822, "energy": 92.648389, "activity_lines": [ 43.983333, 51.518726, 59.292189, 62.655827 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 655.35, "trend": 64.555333, "fair_value": 120.173269, "relative_strength": -34.307386, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.888072, "energy": 90.267055, "activity_lines": [ 42.57, 48.312545, 57.230285, 61.162064 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }