{ "ticker": { "uuid": "569a5fa6-a8ff-4c84-9876-abe6fe90ef4a", "symbol": "AGROPHOS", "name": "Agro Phos (India) Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.35, "architecture_energy": 55.084, "architecture_maturity": 63.0, "architecture_confidence": 84.039, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.14, "rotation_up": 14.39, "upward_expansion": 9.85, "deceleration": 41.25, "rotation_down": 68.47, "downward_expansion": 87.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.008, 29.577818, 30.312238, 30.839527 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 28.4, "trend_reference": 32.0, "distance_from_trend": -0.1125, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 38.309546, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.25867, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.564499, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.2009, "excess_performance": -0.157191, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.1125, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093228, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.25867, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087733, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.195645, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09079, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.2009, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.463892, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 127752, "relative_activity": 1.38428, "balance": 1.463892, "dry_up": 0.711966, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078169, "annualized_volatility": 0.39195, "from_high_reference": -0.401727, "from_low_reference": 0.188285 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.0, "fair_value_reference": 38.309546, "structural_low": 23.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.041881, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.030221, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.170807, "worst_return": -0.138571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.040059, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.020491, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.320716, "worst_return": -0.285213, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.021258, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.079934, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.231223, "worst_return": -0.215021, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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33.33, "fair_value": 38.41612, "relative_strength": -15.517715, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.09514, "energy": 35.701867, "activity_lines": [ 30.46, 30.751091, 31.065143, 31.818796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.5, "volume": 40654, "typical_volume": 91980.3, "trend": 33.029667, "fair_value": 38.393474, "relative_strength": -17.139662, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.948444, "energy": 47.548425, "activity_lines": [ 30.099333, 30.489091, 30.892047, 31.571699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.040001, "volume": 35263, "typical_volume": 90061.25, "trend": 32.691667, "fair_value": 38.368505, "relative_strength": -16.056565, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.448605, "energy": 51.134167, "activity_lines": [ 29.646667, 30.189455, 30.697619, 31.314301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.25, "volume": 59154, "typical_volume": 88459.85, "trend": 32.317333, "fair_value": 38.342376, "relative_strength": -16.983106, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.811596, "energy": 49.428347, "activity_lines": [ 29.433334, 29.954, 30.538857, 31.092258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.4, "volume": 127752, "typical_volume": 92287.7, "trend": 32.0, "fair_value": 38.309546, "relative_strength": -19.564499, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.349939, "energy": 55.08351, "activity_lines": [ 29.008, 29.577818, 30.312238, 30.839527 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }