{ "ticker": { "uuid": "569c081b-e250-45f7-922e-f4aae40c34eb", "symbol": "SAN", "name": "Sanford Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.576, "architecture_energy": 35.717, "architecture_maturity": 23.889, "architecture_confidence": 76.103, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.77, "rotation_up": 20.93, "upward_expansion": 4.48, "deceleration": 58.2, "rotation_down": 47.49, "downward_expansion": 75.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.997333, 7.008, 7.168206, 7.230763 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.2, "trend_reference": 7.299858, "distance_from_trend": -0.013679, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.076039, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.418429, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.261537, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.018102, "excess_performance": -0.046376, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.013679, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001758, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.418429, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.202015, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.012615, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.195369, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.018102, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.079998, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 71648, "relative_activity": 0.128735, "balance": 0.079998, "dry_up": 0.252852, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039471, "annualized_volatility": 0.245244, "from_high_reference": -0.110643, "from_low_reference": 0.342314 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.299858, "fair_value_reference": 5.076039, "structural_low": 6.75, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.004808, "positive_rate": 0.578947, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": -0.005245, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.103723, "worst_return": -0.075556, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.01432, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.002985, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.256668, "worst_return": -0.09636, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.018406, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.007196, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.232449, "worst_return": -0.131687, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.673216, "energy": 68.696525, "activity_lines": [ 6.978667, 7.094498, 7.244763, 7.294092 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.05, "volume": 254620, "typical_volume": 560595.25, "trend": 7.332295, "fair_value": 5.037224, "relative_strength": 0.106491, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.849353, "energy": 63.947123, "activity_lines": [ 6.982667, 7.059091, 7.221649, 7.275613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.75, "volume": 107109, "typical_volume": 562696.85, "trend": 7.31287, "fair_value": 5.055341, "relative_strength": -3.858593, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.94317, "energy": 65.797327, "activity_lines": [ 6.901333, 6.984909, 7.172442, 7.238045 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.2, "volume": 71648, "typical_volume": 556555.0, "trend": 7.299858, "fair_value": 5.076039, "relative_strength": 1.261537, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.576367, "energy": 35.717357, "activity_lines": [ 6.997333, 7.008, 7.168206, 7.230763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }