{ "ticker": { "uuid": "569c1717-e113-4f76-9bb6-6a2b13ead2ee", "symbol": "002968", "name": "New DaZheng Property Group Co., LTD", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.343, "architecture_energy": 57.648, "architecture_maturity": 79.372, "architecture_confidence": 95.803, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.22, "rotation_up": 27.73, "upward_expansion": 10.56, "deceleration": 60.62, "rotation_down": 52.44, "downward_expansion": 83.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.536667, 8.604727, 9.380667, 10.09129 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.91, "trend_reference": 11.042, "distance_from_trend": -0.193081, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.473561, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.149286, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.4844, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.329571, "excess_performance": -0.336971, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.193081, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087235, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.149286, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.255989, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.244844, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099564, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.329571, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.2837, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17002835, "relative_activity": 1.156165, "balance": 0.2837, "dry_up": 1.351843, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090132, "annualized_volatility": 0.309579, "from_high_reference": -0.390561, "from_low_reference": 0.151163 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.042, "fair_value_reference": 10.473561, "structural_low": 7.74, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.014027, "positive_rate": 0.387097, "directional_follow_through": 0.612903, "median_excess_return": 0.004137, "regime_survival": 0.83871, "best_return": 0.221968, "worst_return": -0.250413, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.00353, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.009973, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.232893, "worst_return": -0.314623, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.078225, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.104303, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.083179, "worst_return": -0.253946, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"typical_volume": 14310774.45, "trend": 11.282333, "fair_value": 10.551704, "relative_strength": -30.653596, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.782659, "energy": 72.29131, "activity_lines": [ 8.319333, 8.696909, 9.682714, 10.409527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.59, "volume": 18889530, "typical_volume": 14545501.45, "trend": 11.150333, "fair_value": 10.517657, "relative_strength": -23.89968, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.567634, "energy": 64.510791, "activity_lines": [ 8.378667, 8.603818, 9.50719, 10.235828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.91, "volume": 17002835, "typical_volume": 14706234.7, "trend": 11.042, "fair_value": 10.473561, "relative_strength": -24.4844, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.343183, "energy": 57.648384, "activity_lines": [ 8.536667, 8.604727, 9.380667, 10.09129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }