{ "ticker": { "uuid": "569c7343-500d-4789-a969-642a192de575", "symbol": "226490", "name": "KODEX KOSPI", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 51.206, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -12.357, "architecture_energy": 30.829, "architecture_maturity": 57.728, "architecture_confidence": 89.883, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.25, "rotation_up": 14.05, "upward_expansion": 43.44, "deceleration": 87.43, "rotation_down": 54.2, "downward_expansion": 39.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 67777.945313, 73635.546307, 75868.789807, 72674.980225 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 64285.0, "trend_reference": 67608.549349, "distance_from_trend": -0.049159, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35795.333847, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.795904, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.446493, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.235701, "excess_performance": 0.005873, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.049159, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.216097, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.795904, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.667424, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.004465, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005516, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.235701, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.520834, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1373666, "relative_activity": 0.657256, "balance": 0.520834, "dry_up": 1.524736, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.139063, "annualized_volatility": 0.463389, "from_high_reference": -0.333109, "from_low_reference": 1.056426 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 67608.549349, "fair_value_reference": 35795.333847, "structural_low": 51740.03996, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.014986, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.000538, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.283448, "worst_return": -0.055114, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.05009, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.002148, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.275658, "worst_return": -0.088777, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.04375, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.006414, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.090229, "worst_return": -0.144815, "sufficient": false }, { 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"stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.016676, "energy": 23.644651, "activity_lines": [ 73894.949479, 78989.222727, 77179.86583, 72747.663878 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 67850.0, "volume": 5693741, "typical_volume": 2107860.9, "trend": 67027.501432, "fair_value": 35543.686173, "relative_strength": 0.632034, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -3.807839, "energy": 23.191105, "activity_lines": [ 70819.042708, 76521.429972, 76721.911905, 72851.915802 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 64285.0, "volume": 1373666, "typical_volume": 2090001.4, "trend": 67608.549349, "fair_value": 35795.333847, "relative_strength": 0.446493, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -12.356694, "energy": 30.828626, "activity_lines": [ 67777.945313, 73635.546307, 75868.789807, 72674.980225 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }