{ "ticker": { "uuid": "56a2af74-5ce4-41b0-a390-c032687fc25f", "symbol": "CODI", "name": "Compass Diversified Holdings", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 79.216, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 40.462, "architecture_energy": 23.037, "architecture_maturity": 51.568, "architecture_confidence": 89.955, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.65, "rotation_up": 31.36, "upward_expansion": 58.83, "deceleration": 86.6, "rotation_down": 24.12, "downward_expansion": 13.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.408667, 10.360909, 10.612524, 10.066473 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 11.0, "trend_reference": 9.139333, "distance_from_trend": 0.203589, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.012081, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.267257, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 23.265522, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.605839, "excess_performance": 0.480215, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.203589, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.210882, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.267257, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059865, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.232655, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.346083, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.605839, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.550862, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3197514, "relative_activity": 0.690756, "balance": 0.550862, "dry_up": 0.648995, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090366, "annualized_volatility": 0.654402, "from_high_reference": -0.129747, "from_low_reference": 1.401747 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.139333, "fair_value_reference": 15.012081, "structural_low": 5.525, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.020996, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.035795, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.076867, "worst_return": -0.147533, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.00538, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.026545, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.204751, "worst_return": -0.198612, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.071384, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.076097, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.223612, "worst_return": -0.684513, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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11.293333, 11.337455, 9.915381, 8.888452 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 10.28, "volume": 7440604, "typical_volume": 5752557.3, "trend": 7.855, "fair_value": 15.505014, "relative_strength": 25.993113, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.036025, "energy": 38.838543, "activity_lines": [ 10.86, 11.205091, 10.05781, 9.054645 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 10.11, "volume": 3659268, "typical_volume": 5591253.35, "trend": 7.990667, "fair_value": 15.449607, "relative_strength": 22.19657, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.941554, "energy": 27.396045, "activity_lines": [ 10.516667, 11.011091, 10.164143, 9.200129 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 10.41, "volume": 4888045, "typical_volume": 5554940.35, "trend": 8.092333, "fair_value": 15.390069, "relative_strength": 27.956859, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", 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"stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.292763, "energy": 14.562227, "activity_lines": [ 10.31, 10.457273, 10.511524, 9.758387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.03, "volume": 2342328, "typical_volume": 4837685.65, "trend": 8.775, "fair_value": 15.137284, "relative_strength": 18.922566, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.507249, "energy": 12.581032, "activity_lines": [ 10.218667, 10.331455, 10.530952, 9.850409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.08, "volume": 2200207, "typical_volume": 4744842.25, "trend": 8.956, "fair_value": 15.071322, "relative_strength": 17.601664, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.59814, "energy": 12.496055, "activity_lines": [ 10.149333, 10.25, 10.537524, 9.934602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.0, "volume": 3197514, "typical_volume": 4629003.3, "trend": 9.139333, "fair_value": 15.012081, "relative_strength": 23.265522, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.461879, "energy": 23.036655, "activity_lines": [ 10.408667, 10.360909, 10.612524, 10.066473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }