{ "ticker": { "uuid": "56a7d5e3-a9f5-4f88-876b-09a7330174bf", "symbol": "TER", "name": "TerraCom Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.945, "architecture_energy": 53.202, "architecture_maturity": 16.282, "architecture_confidence": 93.715, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.82, "rotation_up": 19.69, "upward_expansion": 10.16, "deceleration": 42.08, "rotation_down": 56.21, "downward_expansion": 83.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.065667, 0.067164, 0.070114, 0.073355 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.064, "trend_reference": 0.074667, "distance_from_trend": -0.142857, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.170073, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.623691, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.939243, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.044776, "excess_performance": -0.108482, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.142857, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052521, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.623691, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008229, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.199392, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.153808, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.044776, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.854523, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7286293, "relative_activity": 0.309657, "balance": 0.854523, "dry_up": 0.373592, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.120192, "annualized_volatility": 0.715887, "from_high_reference": -0.488, "from_low_reference": 0.084746 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.074667, "fair_value_reference": 0.170073, "structural_low": 0.061, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.013158, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.034495, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.25397, "worst_return": -0.316667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.116016, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.115291, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.15873, "worst_return": -0.475, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.297797, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.304332, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": -0.015385, "worst_return": -0.526915, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.796745, "energy": 52.329277, "activity_lines": [ 0.066933, 0.069927, 0.073614, 0.075091 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.069, "volume": 7552026, "typical_volume": 32717843.05, "trend": 0.074733, "fair_value": 0.174187, "relative_strength": -9.552646, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.029287, "energy": 43.71278, "activity_lines": [ 0.0676, 0.069582, 0.072652, 0.074735 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.064, "volume": 7169889, "typical_volume": 26853600.3, "trend": 0.074667, "fair_value": 0.172217, "relative_strength": -17.655458, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.872498, "energy": 50.910957, "activity_lines": [ 0.066667, 0.068345, 0.07131, 0.074043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.064, "volume": 7286293, "typical_volume": 23530220.6, "trend": 0.074667, "fair_value": 0.170073, "relative_strength": -19.939243, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.945463, "energy": 53.202375, "activity_lines": [ 0.065667, 0.067164, 0.070114, 0.073355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }