{ "ticker": { "uuid": "56a95fcd-4e8d-4612-b78b-8d1bbe2b29bc", "symbol": "601808", "name": "China Oilfield Services Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.722, "architecture_energy": 37.383, "architecture_maturity": 85.246, "architecture_confidence": 87.055, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.69, "rotation_up": 27.94, "upward_expansion": 20.58, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 32.07, "downward_expansion": 68.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.124, 11.8728, 12.44461, 13.30752 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 12.08, "trend_reference": 14.26343, "distance_from_trend": -0.153079, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.631813, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.174402, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.123988, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.270091, "excess_performance": -0.226887, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.153079, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051568, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.174402, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.127027, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.14124, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028256, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.270091, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.262165, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 80174556, "relative_activity": 0.844291, "balance": 1.262165, "dry_up": 1.404604, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064252, "annualized_volatility": 0.318745, "from_high_reference": -0.44714, "from_low_reference": 0.121634 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.26343, "fair_value_reference": 14.631813, "structural_low": 10.77, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.022804, "positive_rate": 0.619048, "directional_follow_through": 0.380952, "median_excess_return": -0.023871, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.257936, "worst_return": -0.151273, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.075963, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.060303, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.325209, "worst_return": -0.079952, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.042982, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.069223, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.162695, "worst_return": -0.024983, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2026-07-10", "close": 11.29, "volume": 136654409, "typical_volume": 133191149.1, "trend": 14.49443, "fair_value": 14.682947, "relative_strength": -22.144849, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.00153, "energy": 89.293688, "activity_lines": [ 11.324667, 11.89463, 13.126665, 13.898814 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.57, "volume": 137497070, "typical_volume": 131918462.3, "trend": 14.421763, "fair_value": 14.670701, "relative_strength": -14.908248, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.314676, "energy": 86.554769, "activity_lines": [ 11.337333, 11.738066, 12.863889, 13.710141 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.17, "volume": 189618430, "typical_volume": 109894099.25, "trend": 14.370096, "fair_value": 14.657695, "relative_strength": -11.319558, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.2364, "energy": 63.757176, "activity_lines": [ 11.612667, 11.736419, 12.683495, 13.564866 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.63, "volume": 126239475, "typical_volume": 100438927.6, "trend": 14.328763, "fair_value": 14.645832, "relative_strength": -8.09026, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.101359, "energy": 48.278926, "activity_lines": [ 12.021333, 11.84764, 12.578195, 13.452602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.08, "volume": 80174556, "typical_volume": 94960848.9, "trend": 14.26343, "fair_value": 14.631813, "relative_strength": -14.123988, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.722438, "energy": 37.382973, "activity_lines": [ 12.124, 11.8728, 12.44461, 13.30752 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }