{ "ticker": { "uuid": "56a96011-0481-44ba-8846-9fa4fcbac7c3", "symbol": "OTLY", "name": "Oatly Group AB ADR", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 83.577, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 45.522, "architecture_energy": 73.366, "architecture_maturity": 26.0, "architecture_confidence": 60.804, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.82, "rotation_up": 71.69, "upward_expansion": 61.48, "deceleration": 26.75, "rotation_down": 16.01, "downward_expansion": 24.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.213333, 11.684182, 10.919952, 10.862194 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 13.72, "trend_reference": 10.8935, "distance_from_trend": 0.259467, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.313712, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.104071, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.3004, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.283442, "excess_performance": 0.095989, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.259467, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045811, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.104071, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.300762, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.043004, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.295401, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.283442, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.558873, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 539734, "relative_activity": 0.961025, "balance": 1.558873, "dry_up": 1.969799, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103395, "annualized_volatility": 0.729971, "from_high_reference": -0.271762, "from_low_reference": 0.712859 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.8935, "fair_value_reference": 15.313712, "structural_low": 8.01, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.0677, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.014838, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.261268, "worst_return": -0.033898, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.210869, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.110784, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.464111, "worst_return": -0.042373, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.129427, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.299646, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.055465, "worst_return": -0.20339, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.112106, "energy": 30.057537, "activity_lines": [ 9.383333, 9.257818, 9.914571, 10.267462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.04, "volume": 246033, "typical_volume": 395257.65, "trend": 10.623167, "fair_value": 15.62666, "relative_strength": -28.753738, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.772588, "energy": 23.766718, "activity_lines": [ 9.714, 9.371455, 9.888333, 10.227516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.37, "volume": 2200265, "typical_volume": 493055.1, "trend": 10.698167, "fair_value": 15.502109, "relative_strength": -2.915804, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.026621, "energy": 34.159094, "activity_lines": [ 11.030667, 10.097273, 10.188143, 10.404731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.89, "volume": 1439106, "typical_volume": 547555.1, "trend": 10.821167, "fair_value": 15.41166, "relative_strength": 8.115798, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 51.683264, "energy": 67.424156, "activity_lines": [ 12.513333, 11.040182, 10.620619, 10.675172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.72, "volume": 539734, "typical_volume": 561623.15, "trend": 10.8935, "fair_value": 15.313712, "relative_strength": -4.3004, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 45.522359, "energy": 73.366369, "activity_lines": [ 13.213333, 11.684182, 10.919952, 10.862194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }