{ "ticker": { "uuid": "56a9e19a-35da-4cfd-a41e-8f579569577c", "symbol": "EDC", "name": "DIREXION DAILY MSCI EMERGING MARKETS BULL 3X ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 78.277, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -14.134, "architecture_energy": 20.886, "architecture_maturity": 10.764, "architecture_confidence": 59.004, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.76, "rotation_up": 15.17, "upward_expansion": 14.57, "deceleration": 64.01, "rotation_down": 55.54, "downward_expansion": 39.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 72.362, 76.288238, 79.132754, 76.766769 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 75.4, "trend_reference": 73.903637, "distance_from_trend": 0.020247, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 41.329358, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.824369, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.951248, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.076162, "excess_performance": -0.049463, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.020247, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.131558, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.824369, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.672242, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.059512, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.504411, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.076162, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.306685, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 569795, "relative_activity": 0.936452, "balance": 1.306685, "dry_up": 0.8069, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.190518, "annualized_volatility": 0.852121, "from_high_reference": -0.270743, "from_low_reference": 0.8685 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 73.903637, "fair_value_reference": 41.329358, "structural_low": 49.5486, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.000584, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.029158, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.38456, "worst_return": -0.214246, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.060239, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.025604, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.245804, "worst_return": -0.171215, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.089664, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.057591, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.585376, "worst_return": -0.244199, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.058499, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.060855, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.212888, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.050523, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.467003, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", 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"activity_lines": [ 84.378382, 85.178932, 80.971244, 77.243111 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 69.0, "volume": 527575, "typical_volume": 773678.15, "trend": 72.562791, "fair_value": 40.530161, "relative_strength": 2.84653, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.1207, "energy": 14.968356, "activity_lines": [ 78.534621, 82.128864, 80.334047, 77.051005 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 68.76, "volume": 351525, "typical_volume": 677919.8, "trend": 73.038469, "fair_value": 40.759741, "relative_strength": 2.498588, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.692564, "energy": 14.999048, "activity_lines": [ 73.854, 79.460699, 79.718646, 76.805664 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 70.47, "volume": 514975, "typical_volume": 634280.1, "trend": 73.43441, "fair_value": 41.021874, "relative_strength": 3.20128, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.786774, "energy": 21.316172, "activity_lines": [ 71.82, 77.313292, 79.222034, 76.639956 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 75.4, "volume": 569795, "typical_volume": 608461.65, "trend": 73.903637, "fair_value": 41.329358, "relative_strength": 5.951248, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.134127, "energy": 20.886186, "activity_lines": [ 72.362, 76.288238, 79.132754, 76.766769 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }