{ "ticker": { "uuid": "56adf248-f544-43cc-9223-2400a26e46d5", "symbol": "IFX", "name": "Infineon Technologies AG", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 3.364, "architecture_energy": 25.451, "architecture_maturity": 69.476, "architecture_confidence": 75.363, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.74, "rotation_up": 14.82, "upward_expansion": 47.19, "deceleration": 88.0, "rotation_down": 45.16, "downward_expansion": 29.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 63.542665, 68.383089, 68.788022, 63.511897 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 62.639999, "trend_reference": 56.639289, "distance_from_trend": 0.105946, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 37.401603, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.674795, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 11.165297, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.495293, "excess_performance": 0.321047, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.105946, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.269722, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.674795, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117289, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.111653, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.270014, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.495293, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.506288, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1257, "relative_activity": 0.328645, "balance": 1.506288, "dry_up": 0.510092, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10965, "annualized_volatility": 0.515005, "from_high_reference": -0.249551, "from_low_reference": 1.030357 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 56.639289, "fair_value_reference": 37.401603, "structural_low": 35.849998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.034892, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.03003, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.205153, "worst_return": -0.180086, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.033405, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.043161, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.166918, "worst_return": -0.199986, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.107615, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.022435, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.185299, "worst_return": -0.395136, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033977, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.029449, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.081352, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.102679, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017305, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.178967, 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4098.1, "trend": 53.246018, "fair_value": 36.680708, "relative_strength": 34.266902, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.19187, "energy": 58.431098, "activity_lines": [ 76.698665, 76.864544, 68.040332, 61.326338 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 63.529999, "volume": 2502, "typical_volume": 3781.95, "trend": 54.206291, "fair_value": 36.858114, "relative_strength": 19.655789, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.838422, "energy": 37.986841, "activity_lines": [ 71.858665, 74.787271, 68.41607, 61.98982 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 64.339996, "volume": 747, "typical_volume": 3710.9, "trend": 55.133527, "fair_value": 37.024839, "relative_strength": 18.787712, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.632433, "energy": 33.548427, "activity_lines": [ 68.375997, 72.820543, 68.786284, 62.643608 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 61.880001, "volume": 3298, "typical_volume": 3796.7, "trend": 55.927989, "fair_value": 37.208228, "relative_strength": 13.672512, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.220363, "energy": 31.155851, "activity_lines": [ 65.303332, 70.424726, 68.803641, 63.078864 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 62.639999, "volume": 1257, "typical_volume": 3824.8, "trend": 56.639289, "fair_value": 37.401603, "relative_strength": 11.165297, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.364243, "energy": 25.450617, "activity_lines": [ 63.542665, 68.383089, 68.788022, 63.511897 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }