{ "ticker": { "uuid": "56b28f33-ccb6-4be1-80a3-90375f50bad0", "symbol": "603660", "name": "Suzhou Keda Technology Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 77.502, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -1.393, "architecture_energy": 32.423, "architecture_maturity": 14.012, "architecture_confidence": 43.21, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.95, "rotation_up": 18.14, "upward_expansion": 22.98, "deceleration": 50.6, "rotation_down": 55.49, "downward_expansion": 45.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.830667, 10.190727, 10.80819, 10.724602 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 11.99, "trend_reference": 10.656333, "distance_from_trend": 0.125152, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.810192, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.535173, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 21.972182, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.191849, "excess_performance": 0.235053, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.125152, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021864, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.535173, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.24916, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.219722, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.155959, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.191849, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.437647, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 165311054, "relative_activity": 1.504879, "balance": 0.437647, "dry_up": 1.207663, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.12921, "annualized_volatility": 0.683229, "from_high_reference": -0.174811, "from_low_reference": 0.686357 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.656333, "fair_value_reference": 7.810192, "structural_low": 7.11, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.03882, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.022641, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.391441, "worst_return": -0.042683, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.096033, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.080336, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.147516, "worst_return": 0.004573, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.027979, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.007252, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.309006, "worst_return": -0.253049, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.142084, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057178, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029656, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.084175, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.110558, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.044885, "active": false }, { 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.042909, "energy": 34.276733, "activity_lines": [ 10.194667, 10.891455, 11.120048, 10.920495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.71, "volume": 115290444, "typical_volume": 102685610.05, "trend": 10.682, "fair_value": 7.756923, "relative_strength": -18.130815, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.093709, "energy": 61.197991, "activity_lines": [ 9.160667, 10.215818, 10.821286, 10.72372 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.33, "volume": 153821588, "typical_volume": 106491014.55, "trend": 10.624333, "fair_value": 7.774359, "relative_strength": -1.685316, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.606442, "energy": 58.659845, "activity_lines": [ 8.964, 9.933455, 10.687667, 10.636495 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.99, "volume": 165311054, "typical_volume": 109850079.7, "trend": 10.656333, "fair_value": 7.810192, "relative_strength": 21.972182, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.393111, "energy": 32.422522, "activity_lines": [ 9.830667, 10.190727, 10.80819, 10.724602 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }