{ "ticker": { "uuid": "56b7c826-adce-4e5e-999e-ac33dc71c873", "symbol": "XOS", "name": "Xos Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 16.883, "architecture_energy": 14.095, "architecture_maturity": 34.878, "architecture_confidence": 87.093, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.38, "rotation_up": 24.04, "upward_expansion": 37.38, "deceleration": 82.1, "rotation_down": 35.83, "downward_expansion": 38.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.332, 2.517545, 2.5265, 2.411366 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.75, "trend_reference": 2.312833, "distance_from_trend": 0.189018, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.919021, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.440946, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.165433, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.211454, "excess_performance": 0.024, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.189018, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096649, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.440946, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.232076, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.001654, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.404708, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.211454, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 7.753923, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3467252, "relative_activity": 0.396468, "balance": 7.753923, "dry_up": 0.139761, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.368369, "annualized_volatility": 1.296665, "from_high_reference": -0.667469, "from_low_reference": 0.71875 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.312833, "fair_value_reference": 4.919021, "structural_low": 1.6, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.132353, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.124012, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.050296, "worst_return": -0.430838, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.244459, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.299466, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.065789, "worst_return": -0.53173, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.526415, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.59834, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.281013, "worst_return": -0.655429, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.571698, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.71885, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.475949, "worst_return": -0.676913, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-02-24", "end": "2023-03-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.312097, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-03-24", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.432346, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.345563, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01455, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022831, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.610831, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.361667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.202532, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.262987, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.105263, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.101449, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.478903, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.273148, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 8.73, "volume": 2465174, "typical_volume": 3017704.65, "trend": 15.764, "fair_value": 61.913514, "relative_strength": -67.144192, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", 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3.067333, 2.948909, 2.536524, 2.407914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.47, "volume": 721593, "typical_volume": 8522351.05, "trend": 2.286667, "fair_value": 5.188476, "relative_strength": -14.931646, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.053466, "energy": 17.704979, "activity_lines": [ 2.763333, 2.906727, 2.551667, 2.420065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.16, "volume": 567865, "typical_volume": 8546243.5, "trend": 2.289667, "fair_value": 5.129053, "relative_strength": -21.27473, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.84596, "energy": 17.263683, "activity_lines": [ 2.507333, 2.795273, 2.53619, 2.411892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.02, "volume": 315018, "typical_volume": 8557377.05, "trend": 2.289667, "fair_value": 5.069925, "relative_strength": -24.085327, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.105906, "energy": 17.567837, "activity_lines": [ 2.294, 2.652545, 2.507143, 2.394495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.095, "volume": 538907, "typical_volume": 8580149.15, "trend": 2.293833, "fair_value": 4.972547, "relative_strength": -20.781572, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -3.889606, "energy": 15.296802, "activity_lines": [ 2.179, 2.525455, 2.485762, 2.381935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.75, "volume": 3467252, "typical_volume": 8745344.7, "trend": 2.312833, "fair_value": 4.919021, "relative_strength": -0.165433, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.8834, "energy": 14.095295, "activity_lines": [ 2.332, 2.517545, 2.5265, 2.411366 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }