{ "ticker": { "uuid": "56b96e56-a5e4-432a-9fa9-f6d72da79c24", "symbol": "XG11", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Global SDG 11 Sustainable Cities UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 86.492, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.728, "architecture_energy": 34.943, "architecture_maturity": 61.64, "architecture_confidence": 81.802, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.57, "rotation_up": 32.73, "upward_expansion": 57.55, "deceleration": 90.94, "rotation_down": 27.38, "downward_expansion": 21.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.542668, 35.638455, 35.228358, 34.605377 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 36.205002, "trend_reference": 33.947333, "distance_from_trend": 0.066505, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.513106, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.186539, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.036635, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.086748, "excess_performance": 0.022108, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.066505, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044989, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.186539, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036006, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.020366, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064893, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.086748, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.362751, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 552, "relative_activity": 0.353212, "balance": 0.362751, "dry_up": 0.9395, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025039, "annualized_volatility": 0.151256, "from_high_reference": -0.014816, "from_low_reference": 0.224383 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.947333, "fair_value_reference": 30.513106, "structural_low": 30.379999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.060966, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.038504, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.060966, "worst_return": 0.060966, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.098626, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.045562, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.098626, "worst_return": 0.098626, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0668, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012387, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.024976, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.012757, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.054712, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.009416, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016535, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.01395, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.049627, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016941, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029171, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.031277, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035908, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 26.92, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 26.844999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": 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36.003334, 35.602455, 34.503333, 33.991441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 35.59, "volume": 120, "typical_volume": 1374.05, "trend": 33.436833, "fair_value": 30.331663, "relative_strength": 6.227064, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.63444, "energy": 69.969498, "activity_lines": [ 35.921334, 35.68191, 34.675095, 34.139 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 35.195, "volume": 810, "typical_volume": 1355.05, "trend": 33.574333, "fair_value": 30.374901, "relative_strength": 5.770803, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.462656, "energy": 51.117563, "activity_lines": [ 35.673667, 35.648637, 34.802667, 34.25243 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.445, "volume": 1177, "typical_volume": 1398.1, "trend": 33.720833, "fair_value": 30.417176, "relative_strength": 5.112422, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.304399, "energy": 38.096079, "activity_lines": [ 35.534333, 35.645819, 34.949357, 34.373118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.950001, "volume": 3334, "typical_volume": 1560.5, "trend": 33.834167, "fair_value": 30.459388, "relative_strength": 1.338572, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.597453, "energy": 26.259255, "activity_lines": [ 35.284, 35.528637, 35.037024, 34.452419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.205002, "volume": 552, "typical_volume": 1562.8, "trend": 33.947333, "fair_value": 30.513106, "relative_strength": 2.036635, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.728353, "energy": 34.942572, "activity_lines": [ 35.542668, 35.638455, 35.228358, 34.605377 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }