{ "ticker": { "uuid": "56bfc2ff-1c88-4acf-a614-dc824301e7cf", "symbol": "VT3", "name": "Leverage Shares 3x Long Total World ETP Securities", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.004, "architecture_energy": 35.93, "architecture_maturity": 50.981, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.55, "rotation_up": 40.36, "upward_expansion": 66.17, "deceleration": 89.79, "rotation_down": 27.94, "downward_expansion": 13.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.17, 7.152273, 7.079179, 6.822967 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.7, "trend_reference": 6.559454, "distance_from_trend": 0.173878, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.600607, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.673692, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 15.849914, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.21145, "excess_performance": 0.160215, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.173878, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07721, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.673692, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 4.8e-05, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.158499, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061973, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.21145, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 11.210972, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2024, "relative_activity": 0.865142, "balance": 11.210972, "dry_up": 0.778051, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058941, "annualized_volatility": 0.434718, "from_high_reference": -0.006452, "from_low_reference": 0.617997 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.559454, "fair_value_reference": 4.600607, "structural_low": 4.75897, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.05359, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.037533, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.108148, "worst_return": -0.113413, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.085099, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.013691, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.133993, "worst_return": -0.004216, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.266919, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.224793, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.332081, "worst_return": -0.100833, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.376939, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.232225, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.607651, "worst_return": 0.146228, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030568, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.094516, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.061519, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.057908, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.114708, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.103451, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.10143, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.076472, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.000162, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.01016, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", 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7.225, 7.218636, 6.895098, 6.664534 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.9, "volume": 740, "typical_volume": 2012.45, "trend": 6.449078, "fair_value": 4.521233, "relative_strength": 7.978239, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.374434, "energy": 30.82294, "activity_lines": [ 7.118333, 7.165, 6.930481, 6.696342 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.85, "volume": 993, "typical_volume": 2062.1, "trend": 6.478467, "fair_value": 4.54474, "relative_strength": 5.560263, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.341722, "energy": 26.632448, "activity_lines": [ 7.016667, 7.105909, 6.959055, 6.722207 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.85, "volume": 3524, "typical_volume": 2238.3, "trend": 6.509756, "fair_value": 4.569779, "relative_strength": 3.887663, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.568537, "energy": 19.893131, "activity_lines": [ 6.948333, 7.048636, 6.982126, 6.746177 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.7, "volume": 2024, "typical_volume": 2339.5, "trend": 6.559454, "fair_value": 4.600607, "relative_strength": 15.849914, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.00387, "energy": 35.930443, "activity_lines": [ 7.17, 7.152273, 7.079179, 6.822967 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }