{ "ticker": { "uuid": "56c03575-7a13-40e2-aa02-82c268654828", "symbol": "TRIAN-B", "name": "Fastighets AB Trianon (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 68.557, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -12.225, "architecture_energy": 8.901, "architecture_maturity": 9.916, "architecture_confidence": 60.729, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.25, "rotation_up": 29.56, "upward_expansion": 33.55, "deceleration": 33.73, "rotation_down": 26.34, "downward_expansion": 41.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.056666, 17.953636, 17.889582, 17.958706 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 18.049999, "trend_reference": 18.199117, "distance_from_trend": -0.008194, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.796364, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.039708, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.341168, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.046875, "excess_performance": -0.108369, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008194, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032304, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.039708, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032806, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.143412, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026049, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.046875, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.709833, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 221996, "relative_activity": 0.900054, "balance": 1.709833, "dry_up": 1.489407, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048274, "annualized_volatility": 0.215938, "from_high_reference": -0.124402, "from_low_reference": 0.086053 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.199117, "fair_value_reference": 18.796364, "structural_low": 16.619809, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.050803, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.022455, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.111475, "worst_return": -0.116751, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.040187, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.062295, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.139818, "worst_return": -0.198347, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.083127, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.162651, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.170213, "worst_return": -0.285124, 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{ "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027889, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.07489, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.068627, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.02481, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.033163, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": 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"activity_lines": [ 17.973333, 17.893798, 17.83281, 18.013191 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.75, "volume": 577787, "typical_volume": 247802.1, "trend": 18.293714, "fair_value": 18.77643, "relative_strength": -13.700906, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.54017, "energy": 12.142714, "activity_lines": [ 17.936667, 17.868182, 17.822947, 17.974583 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.25, "volume": 201321, "typical_volume": 249410.75, "trend": 18.252379, "fair_value": 18.786248, "relative_strength": -12.116045, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.457518, "energy": 9.254805, "activity_lines": [ 18.056667, 17.927273, 17.865795, 17.971763 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.049999, "volume": 221996, "typical_volume": 246647.55, "trend": 18.199117, "fair_value": 18.796364, "relative_strength": -14.341168, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.225027, "energy": 8.900591, "activity_lines": [ 18.056666, 17.953636, 17.889582, 17.958706 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }