{ "ticker": { "uuid": "56cd3e7c-8fbb-484c-8645-50b4d6286b59", "symbol": "LANV", "name": "Lanvin Group Holdings Limited", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.087, "architecture_energy": 60.418, "architecture_maturity": 33.662, "architecture_confidence": 88.957, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.16, "rotation_up": 13.28, "upward_expansion": 12.39, "deceleration": 39.3, "rotation_down": 70.09, "downward_expansion": 90.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.226333, 1.303455, 1.416952, 1.479892 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 1.2, "trend_reference": 1.54, "distance_from_trend": -0.220779, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.105684, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.430114, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -39.778344, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.142857, "excess_performance": -0.268482, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.220779, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11562, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.430114, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114294, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.397783, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.138229, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.142857, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.788891, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 556030, "relative_activity": 5.504953, "balance": 0.788891, "dry_up": 1.854022, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.215077, "annualized_volatility": 0.691265, "from_high_reference": -0.504132, "from_low_reference": 0.165049 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.54, "fair_value_reference": 2.105684, "structural_low": 1.03, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.035849, "positive_rate": 0.310345, "directional_follow_through": 0.689655, "median_excess_return": -0.080335, "regime_survival": 0.896552, "best_return": 0.35255, "worst_return": -0.251337, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.22242, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.219527, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.548387, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.101064, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.207413, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.24612, "worst_return": -0.448399, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.141414, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.144279, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033047, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.080569, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.101064, 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"fair_value": 2.147735, "relative_strength": -38.585169, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.061334, "energy": 62.547788, "activity_lines": [ 1.302667, 1.386, 1.481238, 1.528796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.2, "volume": 15666, "typical_volume": 130902.45, "trend": 1.562333, "fair_value": 2.126517, "relative_strength": -38.531441, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.364054, "energy": 65.042906, "activity_lines": [ 1.254, 1.339818, 1.446952, 1.503269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.2, "volume": 556030, "typical_volume": 101005.4, "trend": 1.54, "fair_value": 2.105684, "relative_strength": -39.778344, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.08691, "energy": 60.417566, "activity_lines": [ 1.226333, 1.303455, 1.416952, 1.479892 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }