{ "ticker": { "uuid": "56d2a2d7-bdc1-4011-8bf4-205140265c06", "symbol": "GFL", "name": "Global Masters Fund Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -8.608, "architecture_energy": 20.511, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 43.371, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.33, "rotation_up": 35.01, "upward_expansion": 33.56, "deceleration": 50.11, "rotation_down": 16.09, "downward_expansion": 44.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.890667, 2.876182, 2.860238, 2.897398 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2.9, "trend_reference": 2.990667, "distance_from_trend": -0.030317, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.29641, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.120255, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.368369, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.121212, "excess_performance": -0.184918, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.030317, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080832, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.120255, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008613, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.163684, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032269, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.121212, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.323531, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11510, "relative_activity": 1.074631, "balance": 0.323531, "dry_up": 0.583998, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.012202, "annualized_volatility": 0.133944, "from_high_reference": -0.246753, "from_low_reference": 0.050725 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.990667, "fair_value_reference": 3.29641, "structural_low": 2.76, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.006944, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": -0.001957, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.109091, "worst_return": -0.093168, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.004933, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.054753, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.103604, "worst_return": -0.137466, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.000863, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.015629, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.357466, "worst_return": -0.140299, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.041812, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.020134, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.028939, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.056478, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.177019, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023747, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.013263, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.029491, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.036649, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.218329, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.62, "volume": 6158, "typical_volume": 17473.05, "trend": 2.319, "fair_value": 2.305064, "relative_strength": 13.200874, "stage": 2, "regime": 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"relative_strength": -13.029935, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.126377, "energy": 37.13115, "activity_lines": [ 2.882, 2.850909, 2.857048, 2.926366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.88, "volume": 1147, "typical_volume": 14641.05, "trend": 3.036, "fair_value": 3.292308, "relative_strength": -13.239404, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.643449, "energy": 33.501827, "activity_lines": [ 2.888667, 2.859091, 2.856238, 2.91486 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.88, "volume": 11707, "typical_volume": 12163.85, "trend": 3.014667, "fair_value": 3.294487, "relative_strength": -14.77035, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.205767, "energy": 25.318925, "activity_lines": [ 2.887333, 2.866545, 2.857, 2.904796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.9, "volume": 11510, "typical_volume": 10710.65, "trend": 2.990667, "fair_value": 3.29641, "relative_strength": -16.368369, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.607937, "energy": 20.511187, "activity_lines": [ 2.890667, 2.876182, 2.860238, 2.897398 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }