{ "ticker": { "uuid": "56d551d2-60d2-4f58-a6de-a42b39cfffb8", "symbol": "688668", "name": "Dongguan Dingtong Precision Metal Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -0.373, "architecture_energy": 26.91, "architecture_maturity": 69.001, "architecture_confidence": 70.8, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.12, "rotation_up": 14.03, "upward_expansion": 43.1, "deceleration": 87.91, "rotation_down": 49.35, "downward_expansion": 37.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 232.529999, 278.589089, 287.337261, 261.802924 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 247.899994, "trend_reference": 225.360506, "distance_from_trend": 0.100015, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 85.640547, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.894657, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 45.144934, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.492989, "excess_performance": 0.536193, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.100015, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.479868, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.894657, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.578963, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.451449, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.418088, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.492989, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.157873, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33786231, "relative_activity": 1.337378, "balance": 2.157873, "dry_up": 1.115119, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.26222, "annualized_volatility": 1.034642, "from_high_reference": -0.429196, "from_low_reference": 2.010966 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 225.360506, "fair_value_reference": 85.640547, "structural_low": 123.932943, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.00728, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.009993, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.40323, "worst_return": -0.282091, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.188155, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.184356, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.849312, "worst_return": -0.274764, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.221325, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.19795, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.411583, "worst_return": -0.426941, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"green", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.135723, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.18411, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.211827, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.063506, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.759375, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.28016, "active": false }, { 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expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.819778, "energy": 24.642728, "activity_lines": [ 313.207329, 337.866, 298.305817, 261.427154 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 222.600006, "volume": 25676370, "typical_volume": 25321921.5, "trend": 218.926165, "fair_value": 83.609185, "relative_strength": 38.675953, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.716243, "energy": 26.120759, "activity_lines": [ 273.756, 317.754372, 295.205867, 261.930071 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 190.279999, "volume": 28922945, "typical_volume": 25300274.25, "trend": 221.22461, "fair_value": 84.413916, "relative_strength": 16.488481, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -5.876958, "energy": 28.989957, "activity_lines": [ 237.348666, 292.18509, 288.662068, 260.081931 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 247.899994, "volume": 33786231, "typical_volume": 25263045.05, "trend": 225.360506, "fair_value": 85.640547, "relative_strength": 45.144934, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.373413, "energy": 26.910463, "activity_lines": [ 232.529999, 278.589089, 287.337261, 261.802924 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }