{ "ticker": { "uuid": "56dac1fa-6d0f-4aab-8124-2c76c71147f3", "symbol": "ALKOM", "name": "Pl\u00e1sticos Compuestos, S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 93.641, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 20.136, "architecture_energy": 34.513, "architecture_maturity": 33.845, "architecture_confidence": 50.063, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.88, "rotation_up": 39.47, "upward_expansion": 35.33, "deceleration": 50.17, "rotation_down": 14.0, "downward_expansion": 55.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.799667, 0.795818, 0.791548, 0.802497 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.81, "trend_reference": 0.829117, "distance_from_trend": -0.023057, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.902811, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.102802, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.794924, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.063584, "excess_performance": -0.116895, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.023057, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08143, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.102802, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05279, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.177949, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042903, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.063584, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 200, "relative_activity": 2.588997, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 0.692557, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.003799, "annualized_volatility": 0.178058, "from_high_reference": -0.27027, "from_low_reference": 0.051948 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.829117, "fair_value_reference": 0.902811, "structural_low": 0.77, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.042424, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.021817, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.149425, "worst_return": -0.307692, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.163636, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.118356, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.283019, "worst_return": -0.253846, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.032401, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.033063, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.212121, "worst_return": -0.276923, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"relative_strength": -17.216688, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.874423, "energy": 80.842742, "activity_lines": [ 0.791667, 0.790545, 0.791548, 0.810853 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.795, "volume": 5, "typical_volume": 72.75, "trend": 0.843283, "fair_value": 0.904574, "relative_strength": -17.095181, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.846007, "energy": 80.031214, "activity_lines": [ 0.793, 0.791727, 0.79069, 0.807297 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.795, "volume": 4, "typical_volume": 72.5, "trend": 0.836117, "fair_value": 0.903644, "relative_strength": -17.894461, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.295501, "energy": 58.921713, "activity_lines": [ 0.794, 0.792455, 0.790214, 0.804182 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.81, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 77.25, "trend": 0.829117, "fair_value": 0.902811, "relative_strength": -17.794924, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 20.136438, "energy": 34.513135, "activity_lines": [ 0.799667, 0.795818, 0.791548, 0.802497 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }