{ "ticker": { "uuid": "56df0d36-f018-463d-b58a-d112b6b988c1", "symbol": "GEO", "name": "Geodrill Limited", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.149, "architecture_energy": 56.382, "architecture_maturity": 52.139, "architecture_confidence": 94.063, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.88, "rotation_up": 19.23, "upward_expansion": 9.69, "deceleration": 46.06, "rotation_down": 60.62, "downward_expansion": 83.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.547333, 2.604364, 2.742476, 2.870774 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.62, "trend_reference": 3.076, "distance_from_trend": -0.148244, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.818462, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.070415, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.393541, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.253561, "excess_performance": -0.373983, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.148244, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116769, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.070415, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.230057, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.303935, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125575, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.253561, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.444256, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 62100, "relative_activity": 0.920204, "balance": 0.444256, "dry_up": 0.608283, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086612, "annualized_volatility": 0.438606, "from_high_reference": -0.389277, "from_low_reference": 0.105485 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.076, "fair_value_reference": 2.818462, "structural_low": 2.37, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 1.6e-05, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008168, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.212903, "worst_return": -0.262443, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.028715, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.000129, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.37561, "worst_return": -0.292969, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.282896, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.271696, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.472393, "worst_return": -0.363281, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.257384, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.087719, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.106618, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.215947, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.124324, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.142029, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.533105, "energy": 64.701829, "activity_lines": [ 2.698667, 2.775455, 2.896476, 3.043419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.6, "volume": 19400, "typical_volume": 98555.0, "trend": 3.233, "fair_value": 2.826282, "relative_strength": -31.378627, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.147361, "energy": 67.798246, "activity_lines": [ 2.656667, 2.730182, 2.857143, 2.999914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.51, "volume": 45200, "typical_volume": 88425.0, "trend": 3.183333, "fair_value": 2.8225, "relative_strength": -33.142, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.886179, "energy": 66.446105, "activity_lines": [ 2.602, 2.681273, 2.814333, 2.953269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.41, "volume": 37500, "typical_volume": 74265.0, "trend": 3.125333, "fair_value": 2.818077, "relative_strength": -34.72158, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.037828, "energy": 67.18208, "activity_lines": [ 2.533333, 2.619091, 2.765905, 2.903376 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.62, "volume": 62100, "typical_volume": 67485.0, "trend": 3.076, "fair_value": 2.818462, "relative_strength": -30.393541, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.14918, "energy": 56.382004, "activity_lines": [ 2.547333, 2.604364, 2.742476, 2.870774 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }