{ "ticker": { "uuid": "56e02b38-d8ba-45bf-809e-776c3d6b2981", "symbol": "E1MR34", "name": "Emerson Electric Co.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 69.945, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 42.65, "architecture_energy": 56.494, "architecture_maturity": 56.77, "architecture_confidence": 53.995, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.05, "rotation_up": 52.25, "upward_expansion": 52.83, "deceleration": 47.09, "rotation_down": 35.91, "downward_expansion": 22.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 63.765556, 63.709121, 61.764697, 61.240205 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 63.903332, "trend_reference": 61.706495, "distance_from_trend": 0.035601, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 52.855413, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.209022, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.812974, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.076753, "excess_performance": -0.019705, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.035601, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013248, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.209022, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072339, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.00813, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.204043, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.076753, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.454545, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 240, "relative_activity": 0.782779, "balance": 2.454545, "dry_up": 0.391389, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013423, "annualized_volatility": 0.27007, "from_high_reference": -0.078969, "from_low_reference": 0.164079 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 61.706495, "fair_value_reference": 52.855413, "structural_low": 54.89603, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.008757, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.02121, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.143257, "worst_return": -0.097224, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.020649, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.029596, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.059591, "worst_return": -0.104061, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.052215, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.004393, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.122144, "worst_return": -0.007456, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.170657, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.186071, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.084352, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.025634, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": 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-0.794757, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.423143, "energy": 76.522138, "activity_lines": [ 64.377723, 62.811515, 60.574275, 60.857276 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 64.415001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 283.8, "trend": 61.687319, "fair_value": 52.461518, "relative_strength": -0.251177, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.625265, "energy": 79.470228, "activity_lines": [ 64.415001, 63.363349, 61.061649, 61.038226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 62.619167, "volume": 240, "typical_volume": 294.6, "trend": 61.704503, "fair_value": 52.654814, "relative_strength": -4.51112, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.852436, "energy": 61.332187, "activity_lines": [ 63.81639, 63.466788, 61.361187, 61.098345 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 63.903332, "volume": 240, "typical_volume": 306.6, "trend": 61.706495, "fair_value": 52.855413, "relative_strength": 0.812974, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.650051, "energy": 56.493817, "activity_lines": [ 63.765556, 63.709121, 61.764697, 61.240205 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }